Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
955 FXUS65 KPUB 181011 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 411 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather next 24 hours with a Frost Advisory for the San Luis Valley tonight - Warm, mainly dry and breezy conditions into the end of the work week with spotty critical fire weather conditions across the plains. - A cooler and wetter weekend ahead, with the potential for strong storms across the plains Saturday and good chances (50-70%) of rain and mountain snow. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 406 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Dry southwest flow will remain over the region today keeping quiet weather across the southern over the next 24 hours. High temperatures today will top out around to a little above climo. Winds will be much lighter than yesterday but still breezy over the higher elevations and far southeast plains on the east side of the lee side low. Overall, not much impact expected. Efficient radiational cooling under clear dry conditions will allow temperatures to drop to around freezing across the San Luis Valley with probabilities of a frost looking higher. Will issue a Frost Advisory for the San Luis Valley floor for late tonight through early Thursday AM. Otherwise, temperatures will be crisp and cool with lows in the 40s to low 50s which is near climo for mid September. -KT && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 406 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Thursday-Friday...Latest models are in good agreement on slowly increasing southwest flow aloft across the Rockies through the end of the work week, as a seasonably strong upper low digs across the West Coast and into the southern Great Basin by 00Z Saturday. Warm and dry air in place across the region through the day Thursday leads to very spotty critical fire weather conditions across portions the of plains, with highs expected to remain above seasonal levels in the 80s to lower 90s across the plains, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Seasonal overnight lows expected into Friday morning, with some patchy frost possible across the high mountain valleys. Increasing southwest flow induces a lee trough across the plains on Friday, with breezy south to southwest winds again leading to some spotty critical fire weather conditions, especially across the I-25 Corridor. Further east, increasing low level moisture across the plains will lead to the potential for a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with some modest CAPE being progged across the far southeast plains. Friday also looks to be the last day for above normal temperatures for a while, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s expected across the plains, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Saturday-Sunday...While there remains differences in timing and strength of the southern Great Basin system moving across the Rockies through the weekend, models do agree on a much cooler and wetter weekend ahead across south central and southeast Colorado. The latest GFS and ECMWF operational and ensemble solutions indicate the southern Great Basin upper low lifting out across the Four Corners region into south central Colorado through the day Saturday, which then continues to track north and east into northeastern Colorado Sunday morning before lifting out into the Northern High Plains Sunday night. The Canadian suite is a tad further south and weaker with the low opening up to a broad upper trough moving across the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning. With that said, all model solutions do indicate the potential for strong to possibly severe storms across the far southeast plains Saturday, as southerly flow along a prefrontal trough advecting low level moisture across the plains. NBM is indicating mean CAPE across the plains of 500- 1000 j/kg, with increasing uvv and shear ahead of the system supporting the potential for supercell development. The stronger GFS and EC closed low solutions indicate the best chances of precipitation along and north of the Highway 50 Corridor, with widespread precipitation developing across south central Colorado late Saturday morning, which spreads north and east across the eastern mtns and northern portions of the I-25 Corridor Saturday afternoon and evening, before precipitation lifts north and east into northeastern Colorado Saturday night and Sunday. This solution also supports wrap around precipitation across the Pikes Peak and Palmer Dvd region through the day Sunday. The weaker and slightly further south Canadian solution would support the best precipitation across the the eastern mountains and into the southern I-25 Corridor, with sfc-h7 northeast winds of 25-35kts late Saturday afternoon and night. The latest NBM solution is closer in line with the GFS/EC solution and has QPF of 1/2 to 1 inch north of Highway 50, with a 1/4 to 1/2 inch of precipitation south of Highway 50. With snow levels lowering to between 10-11K ft Saturday night, there could be several inches of accumulating snow across the higher peaks, especially across the Central mtns into the Pikes Peak region by Sunday morning. While the amount of precipitation across the region remains in flux and will depend on the eventual track and strength of the passing system, temperatures will definitely cool to well below seasonal levels through the weekend, with coolest day expected to be Sunday, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save for 30s at the peaks. Monday-Wednesday...A generally cool and unsettled northwest flow pattern remains in the offing for early next week. This will keep chances of precipitation, especially over and near the higher terrain, along with temperatures at to slightly below seasonal levels into the middle of the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 406 APM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with clear skies and light diurnally driven winds under 15 kts. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ069>071. VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with clear skies and light diurnally driven winds under 15 kts. -KT && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT