Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FNUS75 KPUB 061619
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Spot Forecast for Monument Fire Center...Pike NF
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1019 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on June 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

It will be slightly cooler today across the plains but the heat
will return on Friday. There is a low chance for isolated showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening and if any
development were to move across the burn area, little if any
wetting rainfall is expected at this time. Thunderstorm chances
increase for Friday though they will still be high based gusty
wind makers and not necessarily produce much precipitation
amounts.

The highest chances for strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
will be Saturday through Monday. Current forecast amounts are in
the half to three quarters of an inch range each day, however,
could change given the spotty nature of the thunderstorm
development. Thunderstorm chances continue through the middle of
next week, particularly over the mountains, but coverage decreases
as temperatures heat up once again.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny(26 percent).
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....84F.
Min humidity........17-22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........light until 1200, then southeast around 12
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 1500.
Mixing height.......7500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1200, then good.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   10  13  16  19  32  45
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   2   2
Temp............77  80  83  84  84  84  81
RH..............28  25  23  22  23  23  25
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   9   9   9   12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.9   18  18  18  21  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 7.0 8.0 8.5 8.5 7.5 7.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  13  14  15  16  15  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100051  78  98  112 118 101 85

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy(55 percent) until 2000, then
                    partly cloudy(29 percent).
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....55F.
Max humidity........61-66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph until 0300, then
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms until 2400.
Mixing height.......5000 ft agl until 1900, then 1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 13 mph until 0500, then southwest
                    around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900, then fair until 2000, then
                    poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58  52  47  42  39  37  35  29  24  18  14  11
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............80  76  71  68  66  64  61  60  58  56  56  55
RH..............26  30  35  39  42  46  51  55  59  66  64  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  9   9   9   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.21  21  21  21  21  21  22  22  22  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.15  16  15  15  15  16  17  17  15  14  13  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100064  40  20  18  18  19  20  19  17  15  14  15

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny(30 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....88F.
Min humidity........10-15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........light until 0900, then northwest around 10
                    mph until 1500, then north. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......2500 ft agl until 1000, then 8000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 17 mph until 1600, then northwest
                    around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then very good until 1100,
                    then excellent until 1600, then very good.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   10  13  15  25  36  46  49  51  54  54  53
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   4   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............55  62  70  77  82  85  88  88  87  85  84  81
RH..............66  52  38  30  23  19  15  16  17  19  20  23
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  15  15  15  17  17  17  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 1.5 3.0 8.0 11  14  13  11  9.5 8.0 6.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  N
Transp wind spd.13  13  15  16  17  20  21  20  18  17  16  16
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/100013  15  21  39  121 181 249 212 178 146 113 90

.OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY JUNE 13 THROUGH WEDNESDAY JUNE 19...

$$
Forecaster...Rodriguez
Requested by...Christina Barba
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415650.1/PUB
.DELDT 06/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0