345
FXUS62 KRAH 250700
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the southern Middle
Atlantic today, then continue to extend westward across the South
Atlantic states through Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough, then weak
cold front, will move across NC Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 PM Monday...

The 00Z upper air analyses show the H25 trough over the Northeast
and mid-Atlantic, while the H5 trough was slightly east, mainly
along the East Coast. There is still plenty of moisture evident at
H7 and H85, although some drier air was creeping into the northern
Piedmont. At the surface, the front has progressed through most of
central NC, however there are still some mid 70s dewpoints over the
Coastal Plain as of 01Z. Dewpoints elsewhere generally range from
mid 60s to mid 60s. The surface high, over OH/PA as of 01Z, should
settle ssewd to over WV/VA tonight. The question is if the surface
boundary will remain stalled over the Coastal Plain tonight or
whether/how far the high will help push it sewd. Where the higher
dewpoint air remains, some fog/low stratus will be possible.
Otherwise, expect lows mainly in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees,
although a few isolated spots could stay a bit above 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

Tuesday will be largely precipitation free across central NC as the
trough exits into the Atlantic and is replaced by weak ridging over
the Southeast US. Our region will also be under a much drier more
stable airmass behind the cold front. Surface high pressure over the
Appalachians in the morning will move east into the Atlantic during
the day, shifting the low-level flow to a more southerly direction.
Thus there will be very little to no change in temperatures from
today despite today`s cold frontal passage, with highs again in the
lower-to-mid-90s. Where there will be a noticeable difference is the
humidity, as dew points will mix out into the upper-50s to lower-60s
in the afternoon. So heat indices will be very similar to the air
temperatures. The one possible area of precipitation is from
Fayetteville south and east, where some CAMS (mainly the HRRR and
RAP), show enough instability for a few showers and storms to
develop along the sea breeze. But the other CAMS are much less
impressed. Given this and the unfavorable upper pattern, only carry
slight chance POPs there at this time. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the upper-60s to lower-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A cold front should extend from northeast to southwest across the
forecast area Thursday morning, and it will continue to slide
southeast through the day. At this point, Thursday afternoon
currently looks like the best chance for rain in the next 7 days,
with likely pops extending south and east from Raleigh. While
instability values should be modest, between 1000-2000 J/kg, the
vertical wind profile shows very little shear, which will make it
hard for any thunderstorms to become organized and produce severe
weather. The chance for thunderstorms will continue into the
evening, and another round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday
afternoon with the front loitering in the region - ensembles show
the chance of showers/storms extending a bit farther to the north on
Friday than they did 24 hours ago. An isolated storm cannot be ruled
out on Saturday, but the next chance of storms across the region
will come Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday with another front. The
NAEFS shows a higher probability of rain Sunday night than Thursday,
but this remains an outlier solution.

There will be minimal relief from the heat with Thursday`s front,
although highs should drop 3-5 degrees from Wednesday`s values.
Still, most of the region will reach the 90s again. Friday`s high
will be similar to Thursday`s, then an upper ridge will build over
the Southeast for the weekend, bringing a renewed surge of heat and
humidity. Saturday and particularly Sunday are the days with the
highest heat indices, with nearly all locations over 100 degrees on
Sunday. While humidity will remain high on Monday, highs should be 5-
10 degrees cooler compared to Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

While primarily VFR conditions, and a couple of layers of
stratocumulus (5-6 thousand ft) and altocumulus (8-10 thousand ft)
are expected through this evening, an area of IFR-MVFR ceilings may
develop along a cold front that will settle south across sern NC and
nrn SC this morning. Associated flight restrictions will be most
likely at FAY, followed by RWI and then RDU. Light, generally nely
surface winds this morning are forecast to veer to sely/sly today-
tonight, as high pressure otherwise builds across and offshore the
srn Middle Atlantic.

Outlook: Areas of mostly IFR stratus will be possible throughout
cntl NC Wed morning and mainly at FAY and RWI Thu morning. A chance
of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms will also return to the
forecast for Wed through the weekend, with the relative highest
probabilities at FAY/RWI on Thu. Additionally, the development of an
Appalachian-lee, nocturnal low-level jet across and offshore the
Middle Wed night may result in marginal low-level wind shear in cntl
NC during that time.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 25:
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH