312
FXUS62 KRAH 251845
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the southern Middle
Atlantic today, then continue to extend westward across the South
Atlantic states through Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough, then weak
cold front, will move across NC Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning. A
1018 mb area of surface high pressure is currently centered over
northern VA and the eastern panhandle of WV, with the cold front now
well to our south across southern GA/SC. Looking aloft, a mid/upper
low now centered over Nova Scotia will lift NE through tonight as
ridging builds over the Deep South. Warming and drying from this
ridging is resulting in a stout subsident inversion at 700 mb
evident again on this morning`s GSO sounding.

It will be another hot day with the ridge in place, and low-level
thicknesses look to be similar to yesterday, supporting high
temperatures ranging from lower-90s in the far NE to upper-90s in
the far SW. However, dry air and good mixing will help dew points be
noticeably lower than yesterday, dropping to the upper-50s this
afternoon across the far northern Piedmont and lower-to-mid-60s in
most other places. So heat indices will be similar to air
temperatures. Still, basic heat precautions should be taken if you
have to spend extended periods of time outdoors, especially given
this extended stretch of heat we have been in.

As the surface high moves offshore this afternoon, the low-level
flow will switch southeasterly, helping bring in a sea breeze. Some
CAMS depict a few showers developing in southern Sampson and far SE
Cumberland counties along the sea breeze so keep slight chance POPs
there from mid afternoon to early evening (19-23z). But don`t think
sea breeze forcing will be enough to develop anything robust given
the strong capping inversion in place, so if any precipitation does
occur it would be light and brief. Otherwise it will be dry and
mostly sunny with just some scattered flat cu possible.

Tonight will be another warm night with lows in the upper-60s to
lower-70s. Low stratus will be possible early tomorrow morning
especially in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

Hot with near Heat Advisory criteria...

Hot conditions look to be close to heat advisory criteria for
portions of the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain
Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The heat index numbers
currently indicate that the urban areas around Raleigh and
Fayetteville should top out in the 100-104 range, just short of
criteria. Surrounding areas are a few degrees lower in the 98-101
range for heat indices. Maximum temperatures should top out between
96-100, except 93-96 in the NW-N Piedmont. We will hold off on a
heat advisory for now, but we may need one for Wednesday in later
forecasts, especially for the urban areas around the Triangle and
Fayetteville. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot conditions under
strong ridging will continue. There may be an isolated thunderstorm
SE Coastal Plain associated with the seabreeze late day.

Another mid level trough will approach late Wednesday night. There
is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorm NW-N overnight, but
chances appear minimal at this time as models suggest plenty of CINH
overnight. Lows will be mostly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A cold front should extend from northeast to southwest across the
forecast area Thursday morning, and it will continue to slide
southeast through the day. At this point, Thursday afternoon
currently looks like the best chance for rain in the next 7 days,
with likely pops extending south and east from Raleigh. While
instability values should be modest, between 1000-2000 J/kg, the
vertical wind profile shows very little shear, which will make it
hard for any thunderstorms to become organized and produce severe
weather. The chance for thunderstorms will continue into the
evening, and another round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday
afternoon with the front loitering in the region - ensembles show
the chance of showers/storms extending a bit farther to the north on
Friday than they did 24 hours ago. An isolated storm cannot be ruled
out on Saturday, but the next chance of storms across the region
will come Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday with another front. The
NAEFS shows a higher probability of rain Sunday night than Thursday,
but this remains an outlier solution.

There will be minimal relief from the heat with Thursday`s front,
although highs should drop 3-5 degrees from Wednesday`s values.
Still, most of the region will reach the 90s again. Friday`s high
will be similar to Thursday`s, then an upper ridge will build over
the Southeast for the weekend, bringing a renewed surge of heat and
humidity. Saturday and particularly Sunday are the days with the
highest heat indices, with nearly all locations over 100 degrees on
Sunday. While humidity will remain high on Monday, highs should be 5-
10 degrees cooler compared to Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

24-hour TAF period: Dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail
across central NC through this evening, with just some scattered
stratocumulus and altocumulus. There could be a very isolated shower
or storm from the sea breeze in the far SE, mainly southern Sampson
County, later this afternoon. Model soundings (including on the RAP,
HRRR and NAM) show potential for IFR or low MVFR stratus late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. The highest confidence of this
occurring is at FAY, but it can`t be ruled out at RDU and RWI
either. Any ceilings will quickly lift and scatter out by mid
morning. Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) and from the S/SE
today, shifting to SW tomorrow morning.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR stratus will be possible especially at FAY and RWI
each early morning from Thu through the weekend. A chance of mainly
afternoon-evening showers/storms will also return to the forecast
for Wed through the weekend, with the relative highest probabilities
at FAY/RWI on Thu. Additionally, the development of an Appalachian-
lee, nocturnal low-level jet across and offshore the Middle Wed
night may result in marginal low-level wind shear in cntl NC during
that time.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 25:
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Danco/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH