275
FXUS62 KRAH 221852
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain in control ahead of a weak upper
level trough that will move across the Middle Atlantic on Sunday. A
pre-frontal trough and weak cold front will move into NC Monday
afternoon and night, then lift northeastward across the Middle
Atlantic as a warm front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

Central NC remains under the influence of a sfc high centered invof
Bermuda and a mid-level ridge centered to our west.  Moist sly low
level flow has resulted in a gradually increasing humidity trend
over the past 24 hours, and we`re now seeing heat indices currently
in the mid to upper 90s area-wide, with a spots particularly across
the eastern half of our cwa hovering around 100 where the ambient
temps and dwpts are the highest. Peak heating will occur late this
afternoon, then temps will gradually fall through the 80s during the
evening hours and through the 70s overnight, with lows in the low-
mid 70s.

A few showers to our SE near the coast along the sea breeze may try
to push inland toward southern Sampson County; otherwise, dry the
rest of today and tonight. It`s also worth noting that very similar
to earlier this morning, we`re expecting another period of stratus
to form mainly along and south of a line from Roanoke Rapids to
Raleigh to Albemarle between 4-8 AM Sunday as a result of the
increasingly moist low levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Heights at 500mb will lower by 20-40m on Sunday as a shortwave
crossing the northern US dips into a weakness in the upper ridge,
with an associated cold front approaching the region Sunday night.
Ahead of the front, the remnants of AL92 near Savannah today will
begin to drift north in a further weakened state and become absorbed
into the upper trough, with broad sw-rly flow across the region.
That warm sw-rly flow should offset the slight weakening of the
ridge and keep temps similar to today in the mid 90s.  Soundings
also once again suggest decent mixing and dewpoints in the upper 60s
to lower 70s, which keeps heat indices in the 100-104 range in the
east where heat advisory concerns would be greatest.  Even if a few
sites hit 105, a modest 10kt wind with occasional gusts to 15-20kt
should also keep the heat from feeling overly oppressive, and wet
bulb globe temps remain in mostly in the 84-86 range, suggesting
only a moderate heat threat.  Based on this and coordination with
neighboring offices, we are not issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible across mainly the
southern coastal plain associated with enhanced seabreeze and
perhaps the weakening AL92 circulation during the afternoon and
evening.  Northern areas are initially capped but with heights aloft
lowering there should be a weakening line of storms associated with
a pre-frontal trough late in the evening.  Poor diurnal timing will
limit any severe threat.  Given how dry forecasting soundings are,
coverage should not be very high in either area., but individual
showers and storms will produce gusty winds with high DCAPE and
inverted V profiles.  Overnight lows will be very muggy in the low
to mid 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 353 AM Saturday...

...Dangerously hot temperatures expected early to mid week...

As an upper level trough moves across the region Monday, ridging
will build back in quickly by Wednesday. A second upper level trough
will move across the region Thursday as weak upper level high
pressure will slowly creep into the Mid-Atlantic region late week.

At the surface, a weak cold front will make its way across the
Appalachian mountains and into Central NC on Monday. As the front
approaches dew points are expected to get into the mid/upper 70s in
some areas resulting in another hot day. Monday rain chances will be
isolated across much of the Piedmont region and more scattered to
numerous over the Coast Plain region. Timing is still a little
uncertain as some models show decaying of the precip as it moves
across the region but for now have best/high chance in the afternoon
to early evening especially over the Coastal Plain. Temperatures are
expected to be in the low 90s in the NW to mid/upper 90s elsewhere.

Tuesday is expected to be dry with the frontal boundary to the south
of the region. However the far southeastern portions of the FA could
see lingering showers Tuesday afternoon if the boundary stalls
closer than anticipated. As surface high sits just off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, Wednesday is expected to be oppressive as dew points
are expected to get back into the low to mid 70s and temperatures
warming up into the mid/upper 90s with a few triple digits in the
warmer areas. Heat indices will be in the 100s almost everywhere
with 105+ F heat indices around the Triangle and far southern
portions of the Sandhills. Scattered showers will be possible
especially across the western Piedmont and Sandhills Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns to the area, although chances remain
low in the 20-30 percent range.

Thursday into Friday another cold front is expected to move across
the region bringing a better chance for showers and storms.
Continuous model agreement has shown the best chance for
precipitation will be in the afternoon and early evening hours. The
frontal system is expected to move to the coast by Friday morning
where like last time is expected to linger. This will result in
afternoon showers and storms possible across the far southern
portions of the CWA Friday and Saturday afternoons. Thursday will be
warm ahead of the front with high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s.
Temperatures are expected to cool down a little Friday and Saturday
(but still 5-7 degrees above normal) with highs in the low to mid
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 136 PM Saturday...

Through 18Z Sunday: The primary aviation concern through the 24 hour
TAF period will be the chance for a period of low-MVFR or IFR cigs
mainly along and south of a line from KIXA-KRDU-KVUJ between 08z-13Z
Sunday. Outside of that flt reduction during that time frame, VFR
conditions are expected with s to sw winds generally aob 10kt, with
a few higher gusts after 14Z Sunday.

After 18Z Sunday:  An approaching cold front will support a slight
chance of showers and storms and related sub-VFR restrictions late
Sunday, with better coverage on Monday. Tuesday should be mostly dry
before isolated showers and storms may return on Wednesday
especially west.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22:
KRDU: 100/2022
KFAY: 101/2022

...Hot with Heat Indices Topping Out In the Upper 90s to Lower
100s...

...Continued Dry...
June 23:
KRDU: 100/1986
KFAY: 102/1981

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 22:
KGSO: 75/1981
KRDU: 78/1933

June 23:
KGSO: 74/2015
KRDU: 77/1890
KFAY: 77/2017

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KGSO: 75/2015
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...bls
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH