133
FXUS62 KRAH 260700
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot southwesterly flow will result today between high pressure over
the Atlantic and a cold front that will approach from the northwest
and reach the western Carolinas by Thursday morning. The front will
then move slowly east across the central and eastern Carolinas later
Thursday through Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

Hot with near Heat Advisory criteria...

Hot conditions look to be close to heat advisory criteria for
portions of the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain
Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The heat index numbers
currently indicate that the urban areas around Raleigh and
Fayetteville should top out in the 100-104 range, just short of
criteria. Surrounding areas are a few degrees lower in the 98-101
range for heat indices. Maximum temperatures should top out between
96-100, except 93-96 in the NW-N Piedmont. We will hold off on a
heat advisory for now, but we may need one for Wednesday in later
forecasts, especially for the urban areas around the Triangle and
Fayetteville. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot conditions under
strong ridging will continue. There may be an isolated thunderstorm
SE Coastal Plain associated with the seabreeze late day.

Another mid level trough will approach late Wednesday night. There
is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorm NW-N overnight, but
chances appear minimal at this time as models suggest plenty of CINH
overnight. Lows will be mostly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

A cold front should extend from northeast to southwest across the
forecast area Thursday morning, and it will continue to slide
southeast through the day. It still appears that the bulk of the
showers and thunderstorms will occur behind the front, with greatest
coverage during the mid afternoon decreasing through the late
afternoon into the evening. Vertical wind shear still remains very
low, meaning it should be hard for an organized cluster of storms to
develop. However, instability values between 1000-2000 J/kg should
be enough to allow isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop, with the primary hazard coming from damaging wind gusts.
The chance of thunderstorms should linger everywhere into the
evening, then remain confined east of I-95 after midnight. While
dewpoints may be slightly increased from today, high temperatures
should come down between 3-7 degrees. This should result in a day
with heat index values in the 90s north of US-64 and in the low
triple digits south of US-64.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Friday: It still appears that morning precipitation should remain
confined to southeastern counties, but as the previous day`s front
retreats back to the north, a chance of thunderstorms should return
to most locations in the afternoon. An upper level shortwave moving
through Friday night will allow the chance of showers/storms to
continue overnight, particularly across western counties. Highs
should range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s, with heat index
values over 100 south of Raleigh.

Weekend: Ensembles are a bit faster than deterministic models
bringing precipitation to the east in advance of the next front.
Have increased pops to chance to most locations Saturday afternoon,
although precipitation will retreat west overnight. However,
deterministic and ensemble models continue to have good agreement
with the front moving through Sunday/Sunday night, and have
continued with likely pops during the afternoon/evening time period.
These two days will likely be the warmest days in the extended
forecast, with widespread mid to upper 90s for highs. Heat index
values will probably reach heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees in
many locations, although there is more uncertainty in reaching these
values with the chance of rain in the forecast.

Monday/Tuesday: The front will be slow to move through, and will
maintain chance pops nearly everywhere Monday afternoon and across
southern counties Tuesday afternoon. Both temperatures and humidity
should definitely be lower behind the front, with air temperatures
ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s and heat index values close
to the air temperatures as a result of the lower humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

An area of stratus based between 1000-1500 ft AGL now blossoming
over nrn SC/srn NC will likely continue to expand nwd, amid light
sly flow in that layer, and overspread FAY; RDU; and RWI through
11Z, then lift and disperse to VFR by 13-14Z. It may also locally
lower to IFR as the sub-cloud layer further cools and moistens
through sunrise. While an isolated storm cannot be ruled out mainly
around FAY with daytime heating and lift from the sea breeze, there
will be a slightly better chance of a few showers and isolated
storms over the Piedmont tonight, as a mid-level trough and outflow
boundary/front approach from the northwest - likely to be
highlighted with a PROB30 group with 12Z TAF issuance.
Additionally, the development of an Appalachian-lee, nocturnal low-
level jet across and offshore the Middle tonight may result in
marginal low-level wind shear mainly from nrn NC/srn VA to the
Middle Atlantic coast.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR stratus will again be possible especially at FAY
and RWI in the early morning from Thu through the weekend. The
chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms will be highest,
especially at FAY and RWI on Thu, and again area-wide Sun-Sun night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH