640
FXUS62 KRAH 301948
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
347 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tonight into Monday. High
pressure will then extend into the southeast Monday and Tuesday,
with a gradual return of heat and humidity by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 347 PM Sunday...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the NC/VA bordering
counties valid through 11 pm tonight.

The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm tonight.

The pre-frontal storms have thus far been pretty tame this
afternoon with gusts capping at 25 mph.  There has been some heavier
rain rates with these cells, but thus far no flooding issues.  The
initial pre-frontal showers/storms should continue to push ese
through this evening, with additional generation likely across the
Piedmont as weak mid-level impulses move through VA and SC.
Additional cells currently developing over the VA mountains may trek
across our NC/SC border through this evening (the Triad remains
quite stable this afternoon, so not sure we`ll see much activity
there). Effective shear will maximize in this vicinity during this
period as well, albeit not overly impressive (20 to 30 kts max).
Given that the thermodynamics are rather explosive, coupled with
some expected increasing shear, there remains the possibility for a
few isolated damaging wind gusts in the Watch area.   The severe
threat should wane with loss of heating. However, an additional
round of showers/isolated storms will accompany the cold front as it
pushes down from VA overnight (highest POPs along the I-95
corridor). Lastly, some patchy fog may develop ahead of the cold
front along the Coastal Plain late tonight. Warm overnight lows in
the upper 70s are expected again.

&&


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...

Overnight showers and storms should be exiting the southern coastal
plain by Monday morning as a fairly stout cold front for the season
(10-15F temp drop across OH this afternoon), surges into the area
from the north.  a 40m+ drop in 1000-850mb thicknesses combined with
dewpoints dropping into the 50s (some guidance suggests upper 40s
with mixing) will result in a much welcomed relief from the heat.
highs will top out several degrees below normal in the low to mid
80s. Also behind the front, winds will gust to 15kt to perhaps as
high as 20kt.  RH values will also dip into the lower 30s across
northern areas.  This does not met any criteria for fore weather
hazards, but given the recent drought development, it is worth
noting.

Lows Monday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

 &&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...

A common summertime airmass moderation will occur throughout the
week as the sub-tropical ridge, briefly tempered by today`s
shortwave and cold front, will build back east across the region,
while the Bermuda highs allows moisture to return back across the
region with winds turning to southerly by late Wednesday into
Thursday.  The upper ridge, progged to again reach 596dm+ by
Thursday across the southeast US, will also support the return of
highs in the mid/upper 90s areawide and potentially 100s in some
locations.  Dewpoints are also progged to trend back into the lower
70s, particularly in the east on the downshear side of the lee
trough.  This will may again result in dangerous heat and humidity
as has been observed for the past few days.  Rain chances will hinge
on the lee trough and other diurnally forced circulations Thursday
into the weekend,  Models to hint at a weak cold front by Sunday
Monday with an upper trough over the northern US.  Confidence in
that remains low at days 7/89.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

Scattered showers and storms will continue to blossom across central
NC this afternoon and evening.  Except for temporary sub-VFR
conditions from heavy downpours, terminals should remain VFR through
early tonight. Additionally, some sub-VFR fog and ceilings may
develop just ahead of a cold front at KRWI/KRDU/KFAY late tonight.
However, any lingering stratus or fog will quickly lift to VFR as
the front pushes through to the coast by sunrise Monday morning.
Behind the front, a brief period of stronger nely sfc flow will
spread across the area with some gustiness up to 20 kts possible
through early afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Monday through Thursday as dry
high pressure extends down into central NC.  Return flow on Friday
will promote increasing humidity and the chance for diurnal showers
and early morning fog/stratus next weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ008>011-024>028-
040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...bls
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...bls
LONG TERM...bls
AVIATION...Luchetti