843
FXUS62 KRAH 211021
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain in control over the region through
early Sunday. Rain chances will return late Sunday as a northern
stream upper level trough moves into the area. A pre-frontal trough
and weak cold front will move into NC Monday afternoon and night,
then lift northeastward across the Middle Atlantic as a warm front
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

The heat ridge, which is now centered over the Tn Valley, will
gradually weaken, while migrating southwestward over the mid south
by tonight. Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend west into
the Carolinas. Farther south, a tropical wave/weak area of low
pressure, currently a couple hundred miles east of Jacksonville,
will move ashore northern Florida or southeastern Georgia late this
afternoon/evening.

Low-level thicknesses continue to climb. However, tolerable
dewpoints in the 60s should hold on for one more day. Thus, heat
indices will be comparable to the dry bulb temps, topping out 90-95.

Enhanced moisture convergence associated with an inverted coastal
trough extending north from the tropical wave approaching the
Florida/Georgia coast may support an isolated shower or storm across
the far SE counties, where weak buoyancy is expected. Otherwise,
continued dry as strong cap remains in place.

Expect milder overnight lows and rising humidity as the low-level
becomes increasingly south-southeasterly. Lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, with some low clouds and/or fog possible, mainly across
eastern portions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Heights aloft will continue to lower as the upper anticyclone/ridge
retrogrades further west to the lower MS Valley and srn Plains by
early Sunday. The Atlantic surface high will push farther east out
into the Atlantic, with a pre-frontal trough developing in the lee
of the Appalachians. Low-level thicknesses and humidity will
steadily rise as the low-level flow becomes increasingly southerly.
Given an expected 6-8 m increase in thicknesses, highs Saturday
should be 2-3 degrees warmer, topping out in the lower to mid 90s.
Very humid and uncomfortable dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower
70s will be prevalent and will propel heat indices in the upper 90s
to lower 100s. This level of heat, this early in the season when
most are not acclimated will pose a moderate risk for heat related
illnesses, especially those without effective cooling and those with
chronic diseases.

Rain chances will once again be limited to an isolated sea-breeze
convection across the far SE zones.

Warmer overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

..Dangerously Hot Temperatures Expected this Weekend and into Early
Next Week

As the upper level high that has been over the region the past few
days retreats to the Southwest US, an upper level trough will move
across the northern Mid-Atlantic region Sunday before extending
south on Monday. As that feature moves off shore another upper level
trough develops over western TN valley then deepening as its moves
across the Appalachian mountains  Thursday and into the Piedmont by
Friday.  At the surface, Bermuda high pressure in the Atlantic will
continue to pump warm moist air from the south, but keeping the
shower activity mainly along the coast Sunday. A low pressure system
centered over New England with a cold front extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic region will result in showers and storms beginning as
early as late Sunday night and continuing through Monday. The front
will stall out along the coast but but Tuesday and most of Wednesday
is expected to be dry across our region. A few isolated showers or
storms cant be ruled out Wednesday, especially in the Western
Piedmont and Sandhills region thus, kept a 20-30% chance in. As the
next cold front moves into the region Thursday PoPs increase
significantly especially in the afternoon when peak heating is
occurring and best environment for thunderstorms to develop. Models
have come to better agreement with the timing of the cold front
which for now, is expected to move through the region Thursday/
Thursday night and exit the region Friday night.

Temperatures will still be a big part of the forecast for the long
term. As high pressure influences south/southwesterly flow and humid
conditions it is expected to be very hot. Temperatures are expected
to be in the mid to upper 90s across the region. Heat indices
ranging from 100-107 F can be expected across the Triangle region
and isolated areas over the northern Coastal Plain Sunday. While
conditions will dry out quickly Tuesday and Wednesday are expected
to be the hottest day of the forecast period. Highs in the NW will
be in the mid 90s while elsewhere will see temperatures in the upper
90s. Heat indices will be dangerous on Wednesday as areas around the
Triangle and parts of the Sandhills region could see another round
of 100-107 F. As the cold front approaches and moves through the
region late week, temperatures will range from upper 80s NW to
low/mid 90s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

Any sub-VFR restriction in fog this morning near KRWI will quickly
lift and dissipate. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through this
evening. An isolated shower or storms is possible this afternoon
across the far SE zones, but should remain east of KFAY. Winds will
remain light and generally from east-southeasterly. An increase in
low-level moisture from the SE will lend to increasing chances of
sub-VFR restrictions in stratus and/or fog mainly across eastern
terminals(KFAY and KRWI) early Saturday morning .


Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to persist through
Saturday. An approaching cold front will support a slight chance of
showers and storms and related sub-VFR restrictions on Sunday, with
better coverage on Monday. Isolated showers and storms may linger in
the south and east on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22:
KRDU: 100/2022
KFAY: 101/2022

June 23:
KRDU: 100/1986
KFAY: 102/1981

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 21:
KRDU: 75/1933

June 22:
KGSO: 75/1981
KRDU: 78/1933

June 23:
KGSO: 74/2015
KRDU: 77/1890
KFAY: 77/2017

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KGSO: 75/2015
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...cbl
SHORT TERM...cbl
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH