Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
902 FXUS65 KREV 212017 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 117 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A dry weather pattern with mainly light winds prevails through early next week. * Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through next week. * Look for southwest wind to increase by midweek with the best chances over northeast CA and northwest NV. && .DISCUSSION... The last day of summer will once again see a continuation of seasonal warm temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light north- northeast winds. Daily high temperatures will remain in the low- mid 80s for most lower valleys and 70s in the Sierra through the middle of next week. Some High-Res short term CAMS still hold onto the non-zero chance (<10%) of a pop-up shower, and even a very slight chance through early evening for an isolated thunderstorm towering over the higher terrain of the eastern Sierra in Mono County. The prime ingredients for convection of an upslope flow from the north- northeast, modest mid-level moisture, daytime surface heating, and favorable upper-level dynamics provide for a measure of confidence that at least a few towering cumulus could lift over the more complex terrain areas. Blended guidance shows potential for a repeat performance Sunday afternoon, with shower chances hovering close to the areas for this evening`s sparse convection. Model simulations project the current conditions to continue into early next week with little change to start the fall season. Guidance continues to place a Rex blocking pattern over the western US Sunday and Monday that transitions into an Omega pattern with high pressure briefly building over the Great Basin and Intermountain West by mid-week. This setup will allow for a long wave trough to settle over western Canada and the eastern Pacific through this period. The increased southwest flow aloft will also allow for enhanced breezes across the region Wednesday afternoon, especially across northeast CA and northern Washoe County close to the Oregon border. These conditions could bring an increased risk of elevated fire weather conditions for those areas. Much of this is dependent upon the condition of receptive fuels across the region following a period of dry conditions. Whether you are enjoying that summer-finishing camping trip in the Sierra backcountry, boating on area lakes, or aviating to that favorite airport for a quick meal, this is the time to do it. Ensemble guidance is starting to trend toward a potentially wetter and cooler pattern by the start of October. -Amanda && .AVIATION... With the except of some patchy fog forming early Sunday morning around the Martis Valley to include KTRK, look for VFR conditions to continue for main terminals through Monday. Although some light haze may be present around urban areas for the next couple of mornings, there will be a low chance (<10%) for any visibility restrictions. Haze will disperse by early afternoon as mixing increases with daytime heating. Light north-northeast winds of 10 kt or less will become mostly diurnally driven overnight through early next week. -Amanda && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$