Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
067 FXUS65 KREV 210843 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 143 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A dry weather pattern with mainly light winds prevails through early next week, with a possible increase in winds by midweek. * Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Continuing today will be more of the same of what we saw yesterday: warm temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light winds. Daily high temperatures will stay in the low 80`s in lower valleys and low 70`s in the Sierra through at least the middle next week. One thing that`s changed since the last forecast update is the chance for showers along the Sierra crest in Mono county this afternoon. While NBM guidance doesn`t have much in the way of PoPs, the downscaled NAM is showing a few possible showers along the highest peaks in the Sierra south of Tahoe. It`s not uncommon that we get these pop-up storms along the Sierra in the summer/early fall. A combination of northerly upslope flow, daytime surface heating, and upper-level dynamics will be seen this afternoon to produce at least a few towering cumulus. We`re going to keep PoPs low (<10%), but non-zero, due to the overwhelming majority of models showing no signs of showers. The GFS and EC are still showing a brief Rex Block off the West Coast on Tuesday. High pressure will be over our region at first with the low pressure over SoCal, then as the Block breaks down, the high pushes off east and a shortwave trough brushes by northern Nevada on Wednesday. Not a huge concern as of right now other than possible gusty winds, but something we`ll monitor as we get closer to Wednesday. From Wednesday onward ensembles have the west under a zonal flow, so as of now no storms or showers are expected through next weekend. -Justin && .AVIATION... Patchy fog will likely return to KTRK this morning, dissipating around 15-16Z. Otherwise, light winds, mostly sunny skies, and VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$