Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
924 FXUS65 KREV 232047 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 147 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Hot weather and breezy conditions continue this afternoon and early evening. * There is a 10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms south of Highway 50 on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions linger through most of the week. * Temperatures slightly cool down on Monday, and again on Thursday behind a front, although remaining 5-10 degrees above average. Temperatures possibly return to well above average again next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure area continues to affect Nevada, the Sierra and northeast California this afternoon. Sunny skies and hot temperatures prevail, although highs will be a couple of degrees cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday. The upper high weakens over the next few days as an approaching system from the Gulf of Alaska moves towards the PacNW. By Tuesday, the shift of the upper high allows moisture to slip into the Eastern Sierra, leading to POPs returning to the forecast. There is a 10-30% chance from multiple global and ensemble models for showers and thunderstorms south of Hwy-50 from Alpine to Mono county and into the southern portions of Mineral and Lyon counties in NV. Thunder activity will be mostly isolated with a 15% chance or less of occurring in most areas. Although NBM for Mammoth is showing up to 30% chance of thunder. Chances for storms extend into Wednesday afternoon with up to 15% in the same general vicinity. There may be some very light showers on Monday evening too as the moisture slowly starts to slip in, but the possibility is less than 5%. Winds will pick up in intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as the upper trough passes through the PacNW and into the northern Rockies. Winds will be from the west on Wednesday, but then veer to the northwest behind a dry cold front. The dry weather and stronger winds bring near critical fire weather conditions. More on this in the fire weather section of the forecast. The coolest temperatures of the week are expected behind the front on Thursday too. Beyond Friday, the forecast becomes more uncertain with model solutions spreading towards different scenarios. Regardless, the trend appears to be warmer and drier conditions for next weekend into early next week. -Crespo && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through the period. Skies will be mostly clear with some light haze. Hot temperatures this afternoon may lead to density altitude issues. Winds will be generally from the west and southwest AOB 7 kts overnight and early morning. However, stronger winds with gusts to 15-25 kts are expected during the afternoon and evening hours. LLWS and turbulence is likely overnight across the Sierra and vicinity. -Crespo && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry weather continues for the foreseeable future. Breezy winds this afternoon and evening will lead to periods of near critical conditions for northeast CA, and northwest NV for up to 6 hrs. Otherwise, conditions slightly improve on Monday with lighter winds, and a very low chance (~5%) for showers in Mono Co. However, keep in mind that we are going to be very dry and generally hot through the week. On Tuesday, conditions will be similar to Monday, but we introduce more chances for thunderstorms in areas south of Hwy 50 including Alpine and Mono Co in CA and Mineral and southern Lyon in NV. Chances for showers are up to 30% in Mono. Storm chances should be mostly isolated with up to 15% chance of thunder in the forecast. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the days with the highest risk for fire weather conditions. Dry and windy conditions are likely after a period of hot temperatures. There is also a slight chance for storms on Wednesday afternoon for the Eastern Sierra. Anyway, min RH continues to be below 15% in NV and below 20% in CA. If the current trend continues, the issuance of Fire Weather Watches is likely with the next forecast package either tonight or tomorrow morning for northeast CA and northwest NV. Beyond Friday, conditions appear to improve with lighter winds expected areawide. Keep in mind that anyways an elevated risk persists due to dry and warm weather persisting next weekend and into next week. -Crespo && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$