536
FXUS65 KRIW 200343
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
943 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today begins the warming trend, which will persist into the
  weekend. The first triple-digit temps of the season are
  possible Sunday and Monday.

- A wetter plume will push into WY beginning Thursday afternoon,
  with best chances for precipitation occurring Friday
  afternoon.

- Hot and dry weather will occur through the weekend and into
  the early part of next week with low confidence in any relief
  coming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

We remain cooler than normal today as cloud cover across much of the
region has limited warming. The warmth will return though, with
temps climbing to much above normal values by the weekend. We may
even see our first triple-digits across portions of the Bighorn
Basin Sunday and Monday. The Basin/Greybull to Lovell area is the
most likely to see 100+ temps (50 - 60% chance) Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures look to moderate slightly after Tuesday, but extended
range model solutions are not showing any strong indications of a
longwave trough or moisture plume that would bring much in the way
of relief from the heat.

Before we really start to bake and dry out this weekend, we will
have one last chance for some moisture with a push of Gulf moisture
beginning Thursday evening. Today, the moisture flow will generally
be to our east, though there is a 20 chance that some isolated
showers could develop along Casper Mountain or perhaps the southern
Bighorns later this afternoon. The trough to our west will regress
westward tomorrow and even further east for Friday, allowing widely
scattered shower activity to spread into the region. Best chances
for precipitation will come Friday. Best wetting rain (>0.1 in.)
chances will be east of the Divide, particularly off the lee of the
Winds, Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. Shower chances continue
through Friday evening, then taper off after sunset. Then Saturday,
the ridge begins to build and the real warmup begins.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 941 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A weather system will approach the area over the next 24 hours and
ahead of it energetic southwesterly flow will bring mid-level clouds
overhead. Scattered convection is likely (60-70%) in portions of
central and eastern Wyoming Thursday afternoon. Most of this
convection will not impact any terminals, but there is a 20-30%
chance of an isolated thunderstorm at KCPR from 21Z/Thurs to
01Z/Fri, so have included a PROB30 group to account for this threat.
Conditions will remain VFR at all terminals through the TAF period.
Wind will be light for most terminals (10 knots or less) and wind
direction will change several times over the next 24 hours. The
strongest wind will be at KCPR and KRKS Thursday afternoon.
Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will occur at these terminals. Toward
the end of the TAF period (Thursday evening) very isolated
convection is possible (10-20%) in the Wind River Basin and
southern Bighorn Basin.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hensley
AVIATION...Rowe