701
FXUS65 KRIW 260804
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
204 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue across the Cowboy
  State today.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible today
  as winds increase during the afternoon/evening.

- Warm, dry, and quiet conditions are to remain in place into
  the weekend with little to no chances for precipitation.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures may return to the
  state by the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Yesterday saw record breaking heat across the Cowboy State. Numerous
locations broke or tied previous record high values, one place
to note was Buffalo where the high reached 98 degrees!
Fortunately, temperatures will be slightly cooler today but
still well above normal. Highs east of the divide will reach
the mid to upper 80s, west of the Divide will see highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Winds will increase once again this
afternoon/evening with widespread westerly/northwesterly gusts
of 20 to 30 mph. Due to these gusty winds, warm temperatures,
and low RH values, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
will be likely today. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for
this afternoon/evening across portions of Johnson, Natrona,
Fremont, and Sweetwater Counties.

Warm, dry, and quiet conditions are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the week as high pressure stays in place over the
region. Ridging looks to persist across the region into the weekend
keeping any disturbances well to the north of the area. Models do
show the possibility of a disturbance move to the north of the area
for Sunday into Monday. Any precipitation with this system looks to
remain to the north of the CWA but a cold front may sweep across the
state bringing cooler and more seasonable temperatures. Current
forecasted highs for Monday are in the low 70s to mid 60s, which
would be a welcomed return to fall like weather. Obviously with this
system still being nearly 5 days away there still is a lot of room
for change and confidence in the exact impacts remains low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions for the entirety of the period once again with
light winds and clear skies overnight into Thursday morning.
Winds will increase by 16-18Z for RKS and CPR gusting up to
25kts, and after 20-21Z at all other locations ranging from
18-25kts due to a stronger gradient during peak heating of the
afternoon hours. Winds will diminish with radiational cooling
under continued clear skies towards sunset after around 01Z to
less than 10kts through the end of the period and into the next
cycle into Friday morning. No other weather elements are
expected at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of the state
Thursday. A front crossing Montana on Thursday will bring brisk
southwest winds across the most prone areas of central and
southern WY. Humidity level 10 to 15 percent and wind gusts 25
to 35 mph will be common from RKS to CPR and across Johnson
County. Another concern is the front will push southward across
parts of Johnson County late in the afternoon, bringing an
abrupt wind shift from the north 20 to 25 mph late afternoon.
All winds will be decreasing at sunset. Winds will be much
lighter on Friday, and will remain below Warning Criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A Red Flag Warning is in place for portions of the state today
during the afternoon/evening. Winds will increase throughout the day
today with westerly gusts of 25 to 35 mph. The strongest winds will
be across portions of Natrona and Sweetwater Counties. Min RH values
will range from 10 to 15 percent today. Winds will shift to the
north by the late afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. All
winds will begin to decrease around sunset. Winds will be much
lighter on Friday, and will remain below Warning Criteria.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
WYZ279>281-289.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Lowe
FIRE WEATHER...Dziewaltowski