182
FXUS65 KRIW 311704
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1104 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit warmer today (close to normal) and dry. Then, slight
  chances for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday. The best
  chance for rain and thunderstorms looks like Monday into
  Tuesday as a stronger trough moves through.

- A warmup will occur this weekend and it will be warm to hot
  across the area into next week and beyond. This will lead to
  plentiful mountain snowmelt, especially next week, so river
  flooding will be a concern.

- Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry
  period beginning late next week as a dominant ridge sets up
  over the western US. It wouldn`t be surprising if a couple of
  lower elevations hit 90 degrees F Thursday or Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Warms a bit today (close to normal temperatures), but still mild
with highs in the 60s and 70s. Another chance (20-40%) of rain
showers/thunderstorms this weekend through Tuesday as another quick
moving shortwave and an upper-low/trough will slide through the
Region. Minor river flooding is possible (30-40%) as we head into
next week, with warming temperatures on the way.

The weather systems this weekend into next week will all be quick
moving, so not expecting big precip makers or highly impactful
weather into next week. Although, model guidance is showing the
second system on Monday/Tuesday with a little more oomph as it moves
across the region. Precip chances did increase across northern and
western portions of the area in response to this. It will be fairly
breezy for most locations each afternoon well into next week before
a highly amplified ridge builds across the western US. The breezy
conditions, combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions late this week through this weekend, although greenup
will limit this threat. Timing of the development of an amplified
ridge that model guidance was indicating for next week remains
uncertain as model guidance continues to struggle to come into
agreement, but it will be sometime next week. When the ridge breaks
down is also up in the air and suspect this won`t be clear until
next week once it develops. Regardless of the active pattern
temperatures will not drop much this weekend into next week as each
trough/shortwave should stay on the northern edge of the area as
they pass through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all terminals.
Skies will remain mostly clear across the region through the period
as well. West to northwest breezes across southwest terminals (KBPI,
KPNA, and KRKS) as well as KCPR and KRIW terminals will develop
early in the period and persist through 00Z to 03Z this evening,
before diminishing to light drainage flows or even light and
variable to calm winds. Winds remain light (less than 10kts) at
all terminals through the rest of the period. SCT to BKN mid-
level cumulus will develop across the south late in the period
(after 15Z Saturday) as a weak disturbance will bring chances
for showers and isolated thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon
across souther portions of the state.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...Hensley