806
FXUS61 KRLX 221725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level
ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and
storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 AM Saturday...

The forecast largely remains on track in this morning`s update,
but we`ve made some slight adjustments to forecast temperatures
to better reflect current observations.

As of 1255 AM Saturday...

A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal
temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not
been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys
have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the
Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Models indicating a small chance
of afternoon thunderstorms along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Sunday will be hot and humid once again as surface high pressure
remains underneath increasingly neutral flow aloft due to the
high pressure center pushing off to the Southwest CONUS.
Temperatures will be about 3-6 degrees less hot than Saturday,
due to an approaching system from the west. As a result, some
high-level clouds will begin moving in throughout the morning,
gradually lowering during the afternoon. Temperatures across the
lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat
indices in the same ballpark. The mountains however, will range
between the mid 70s (highest elevations) to the upper 80s
(lowest elevations and mountain valleys).

A quick-hitting cold front will then approach from the midwest by
afternoon with a shortwave trough knocking on the door of our
western periphery. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
increase from west to east over the course of the afternoon. PoPs
increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening
as the cold front pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms, a
few could be severe, will pack damaging winds, some small hail
and heavy rainfall as models project precipitable water values
between 1.50" and 2.00". CAPE looks to be between 1,000 and
3,000 J/KG ahead of the front in the afternoon with sfc to 500MB
shear approaching 40 kts.

Some localized to isolated water issues could be possible with the
heaviest downpours within these storms, but not overly concerned
with flooding as the area could use the rain. Both a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms has been hoisted for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

High pressure provides dry weather most, if not all, of the day
Tuesday.

With the upper level ridge associated with the current heat
wave shunted off to the deep south/southwestern U.S. next week,
west to northwest mid-upper level flow with embedded short wave
troughs/convective complexes traverse the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night through Wednesday. With low level south to
southwest gradient flow behind exiting high pressure feeding
increasing warmth and moisture back into the area, rounds of
showers and thunderstorms become possible Tuesday night, and
then remain so until a deep enough short wave trough pushes a
cold front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

High pressure sails by to the north of the area Thursday night,
and then gives way to low level return flow beneath building
heights, as the ridge expands back over the area, to bring a
dry end to the week.

Central guidance reflects the return of modest heat Tuesday and
Wednesday, interrupted Thursday before returning amid the
building heights to end the week. Lowlands forecast highs are
lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s, still a little
above normal for Thursday, then up to the mid 90s for Friday and
Saturday. Afternoon dew points are forecast to be down around
60 on Tuesday, and then mainly in the mid to upper 60s for the
balance of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...

Patchy river valley fog will dissipate early this morning.
There is also a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms along
the mountains, but chances are too small to include in the TAFs.
Outside of these 2 items, expect VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon thunderstorms may or may not
effect TAF sites in the mountains.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY