647
FXUS61 KRLX 260545
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and with a cold front Wednesday. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1035 PM Tuesday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 438 PM Tuesday...

Radar imagery shows ragged convection decaying as it enters the
Mid OH valley late this afternoon. There will be a lull in
convection until the next cluster of storms currently north
central KY. This activity will approach northeast KY around
00Z, or just cross south of this area by that hour.

Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers have refreshed temperatures
across northern southeast OH and western WV this afternoon, lowering
them about 14 degrees. Adjusted hourly temperatures and
dewpoints accordingly.

As of 1235 PM Tuesday...

Convection from weakening MCS over the midwest this morning is
moving into the area. So far much of this has remained sub
severe, and bulk of any severe is still anticipated to remain to
our west. Latest SPC outlook for day 1 still has just a few of
our SE Ohio counties in a marginal, and this seems reasonable
given latest trends.

Otherwise, should be a bit of a lull in the activity later this
evening and the first part of tonight, however, convection
looks to reinvigorate overnight across the north out ahead of a
cold front and passing shortwave. This should affect our
northern zones late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Severe
threat with this activity looks to be rather low at this point,
but not a non zero risk, and heavy rain is expected.

After the Wednesday morning activity, showers and storms will
redevelop again during the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of
an approaching mid level shortwave trough and the aforementioned
cold front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a
damaging wind threat, possibly a small tornado threat also, and much
of this activity looks to develop towards the end of the near term,
and into the short term period. However, there still remains
uncertainty as to any effects morning convection will play in the
severity of afternoon storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

As the cold front crosses the area Wednesday night, winds will
shift NW`ly and showers and storms will gradually clear from
northwest to southeast. We`ll have to see how the forecast
evolves on severe potential, but there could still be strong to
severe storms ahead of and with the cold front Wednesday night.
Behind the front, Thursday should be quite comfortable, with
highs in the low to mid-80s and dew points in the upper 50s or
lower 60s, but the respite will be short-lived. After a pleasant
Thursday night, winds shift S`ly and bring heat and humidity
back to the area for Friday. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and dew points creep back up towards 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Tuesday...

As southerly winds bring in increasing moisture ahead of the
next front, we could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up
around the area Friday night, with chance POPs across most of
the area. Shower and storm chances will increase more Saturday
and Saturday night as the cold front approaches and crosses.
There is a bit of uncertainty on whether the front crosses late
Saturday night or Sunday morning, so chance POPs linger for the
lowlands on Sunday, and likely POPs on the mountains. The
forecast as of now calls for Monday to be clear behind the
front.

As for temperatures, Saturday will be hot ahead of the front, with
lower elevation highs from the upper 80s to mid-90s, and 70s to mid-
80s in the higher terrain. Sunday`s clouds and rain, plus the
front passage, should limit temperatures that day, though it may
still feel a bit muggy until dry air can work in behind the
front. As it stands now, Monday could be quite the pleasant day,
with lower dew points and highs near or a bit below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Wednesday...

Warm front approaching from the west lofting some clouds and
moisture over the area this morning, most notably across the
southern half of the area. A few showers and thunderstorms could
form as the warm front moves through early this morning, but
expecting a lull in the activity by ~12Z with CIGs forecasted
to scatter and lift some ahead of an afternoon round.

Scattered thunderstorms and showers will arrive this afternoon
as the atmosphere becomes unstable ahead of a cold front,
anytime after ~16Z, as a cold front approaches from the west.
MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in and around this activity.

Light to calm SW`rly flow expected this morning. Winds will pick
up after sunrise with mixing, then shift out of the west this
afternoon with the FROPA. Winds could be breezy at times during
the day and especially in and around showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms through the day may differ from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 06/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms tonight, and again on
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC