433
FXUS61 KRLX 140648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry tonight. Chance for showers
and thunderstorms on Friday with a cold front. An extended stretch
of hot weather will begin late this weekend through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1110 PM Thursday...

Tweaked overnight temperatures a degree or two lower across most
of the CWA. Otherwise, patchy river valley fog is expected to
develop overnight across the central/southern portion of the
CWA. Additionally, a few showers across portions of SE OH
cannot entirely be ruled out later tonight from weakening
upstream convection, but any activity would be quite isolated
and light. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 510 PM Thursday...

Made minor tweaks to cloud cover throughout the evening, but
otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Diurnal Cu
field is currently most robust along the spine of the northern
mountains with anabatic convergence, but given significant dry
air in the low-levels, the chance of squeezing out an isolated
light shower is quite low. Given such, have removed the mention
of isolated showers/storms from all of the higher terrain for
the rest of the evening.

As of 130 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure slides east, keeping warm and dry weather
conditions tonight. Wind aloft increases from the southwest, pumping
moist and warm air into the area with dewpoints increasing into the
mid 60s ahead of a cold front. This cold front will encounter an
environment with CAPE about 1800 J/Kg, deep layered shear (about 25
knots southern two thirds of the area), higher across the northern
sections (45-50 knots), and SRH about 100 m2/s2. PWATs should reach
1.5 to 1.7 inches. Equilibrium levels about 35kft, dry mid level
air, and skinny CAPE sounding signatures suggest strongest storms
could produce moderate to heavy downpours and strong to damaging
winds Friday afternoon and evening. SPC has outlooked the northern
areas under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds being the main threat.

Muggy tonight, with lows in the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into
the upper 50s higher elevations. Patchy fog possible over most
protected river valleys during the predawn hours. Despite of
abundant clouds and cooling showers, highs on Friday are
expected to reach the upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging
into the lower 70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Dry and hot this weekend.
* May feel like triple digits in the lowlands on Monday.

Surface high pressure edges in from the north on Saturday while an
upper ridge builds overhead. Ridging then remains present over the
area for the balance of the weekend and beginning of the new work
week. While temperatures will already be toasty at the start
of the weekend, even hotter conditions are anticipated early
next week courtesy of the persistent upper level ridge. High
temperatures are forecast to break into the 90s in the lowlands
on Sunday. Monday may be even hotter, with 80s to low 90s
possible along the mountains and mid to upper 90s in the
lowlands. A combination of heat and humidity could make it feel
like triple digits in the lowlands Monday afternoon.

After a dry weekend, increasing heat and humidity reintroduces
the chance for isolated convection Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Heat lingers much of next week.
* Storms possible in the afternoons.

High pressure is expected to sustain a stretch of hot weather
through Thursday. While dry conditions are anticipated early
each day, hot and humid conditions could initiate some
convection in the afternoons. Any activity should wane again
after sunset.

Models still display some discrepancies on the placement of the
upper ridge and how quickly it departs later in the week. For
example, the ECMWF leans towards drier conditions with the upper
ridge planted overhead while the GFS shows better potential for
periods of showers and storms as the upper ridge shifts farther
east.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 AM Friday...

Some clouds are encroaching from the northwest, but most areas
southeast of the Ohio River remain cloud free for now. Calm
winds and VFR conditions are noted areawide and any showers over
ILN`s area seem to be dissipating before making it into our CWA.
Some river valley fog will be possible between now and early
Friday morning, but likely more patchy than previous nights, and
none has formed as of TAF time, at least that is picked up on
satellite.

As a cold front pushes down from the north and northwest this
afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA.
However, coverage is questionable so POPs are generally kept on
the lower side for the time being, and was not included as
prevailing weather in any TAFs. Outside of any t-storms, winds
should remain on the lighter side - generally SW-W`ly ahead of
the front, and N`ly once it pushes through.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium due to uncertainty on fog extent and
timing tonight, and timing/coverage of t-storms tomorrow.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent and timing tonight may differ
from the forecast. Thunderstorms could wind up a bit more
widespread than expected.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 06/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog on Saturday and
Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/JLB/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...FK