Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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480 FXUS61 KRLX 241755 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 155 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek. Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 152 PM Tuesday... A deepening upper-level low pressure system over the IL and IN, will bring areas of vorticity around its periphery across the OH Valley and WV through tonight. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over WV will serve as a focus for additional convection tonight. Hi-res models suggest next round of showers and storms lifting north across southern WV and SW VA this evening affecting mainly the eastern half of the area, along and near the mountains. Another round is forecasted to arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/KY/WV) and extreme southern WV during the predawn hours Wednesday morning. Localized heavy downpours will be possible with the heavier storms. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall exist for the entire area through tonight. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exist for portions of WV, northeast KY and southeast OH through tonight. The main threat will be damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. While the area remains under the warm sector of a dissipating surface low pressure system, dewpoints will remain elevated. Expect tonight`s temperatures to range from the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, into the low 60s central mountains, and mid 50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Abundant cloudiness and expected cooling showers should keep warm Max temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s lowlands, into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Tuesday... An upper level disturbance will be the centerpiece for the extended forecast as it continues to produce daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This nearly stacked system will be parked over the western Ohio Valley at the start of the period, and will usher in moisture along southwesterly flow on its eastern flank up into Central Appalachia. At the surface, a cold front will be stalled overhead with ripples of shortwave activity prolonging at least a slight chance for rain from Wednesday into Thursday. A resurgence of moisture and lift will move northward on Thursday night as Tropical Cyclone Nine makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle and conjoins to the upper level low. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm potential for the second half of the work week. While convective parameters will be lackluster with this newly enriched disturbance, rainfall accumulation totals will rise once again starting late Thursday night into Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM Tuesday... Widespread potential for much needed rain tracks northward on Friday as the remnants of what is currently Tropical Cyclone Nine feeds into the upper level disturbance that remains stalled over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. 00z global model suite shows decent agreement with the center of the surface low remaining parked over Kentucky for a decent majority of the weekend. While POPs start off relatively higher on Friday as the tropical system tracks northward (50 to 70%), shower activity will gradually wane as the surface low continues to spin and fail to make any headway to the east. This will ultimately rain itself dry before its upper level support system finally gets nudged to the east by ridging moving into the Desert Southwest. Showers and storms will grow more isolated to scattered as the disturbance shifts over the forecast area later in the weekend, but hopefully we can squeeze out some beneficial rainfall totals to help put a dent in the drought still present across the region. Active weather extends into the start of next week as this slow moving system retains residency nearby on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 136 PM Tuesday... An elongated line of convection passed east of CRW to affect CKB and BKW with brief periods of IFR/LIFR under strong thunderstorms at the moment of writing. Wind gusts up to 45 knots can be expected with the stronger storms. Terminals west of the line, will experience post heavy rain MVFR conditions under light stratiformed rain for few hours. Hi-res CAMs indicate a second batch of showers and thunderstorms developing across northeast KY, and then moving northeast across our area later this afternoon and evening. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible along the stronger storms. A lull in rainfall activity may occur overnight, allowing for MVFR/IFR low stratus to develop affecting most terminals 08Z through at least 13Z. Guidance suggests another batch of convection expected to arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/WV/KY) overnight by 10Z and move east northeast to affect the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. Dense fog along with mountain obscuration may develop overnight into Wednesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L L L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...ARJ