187
FXUS61 KRLX 210447
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1247 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues into the weekend courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 AM Friday...

A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal
temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not
been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys
have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the
Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Models indicating a small chance
of afternoon thunderstorms along the mountains and in portions
of southeast Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 113 PM Thursday...

The hot and humid weather will continue on Saturday as the upper-
level ridge remains over the East. Expect air temperatures to reach
the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the mountains. With dew point temperatures expected to be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will once again `feel like` the lower
100s for many. The chance of an isolated pop-up shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the afternoon as the heat
bubbles up.

Sunday will be another hot day, but perhaps not as hot as Saturday.
High clouds will roll in from the northwest Sunday morning as a cold
front slowly approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes. More
clouds than sun is expected by the afternoon, and most places will
see chances of thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon and evening.
The cold front will likely swing through overnight Sunday night,
with precipitation chances increasing to 50-70% areawide. Heavy
downpours are possible, as PWATS are projected to be anywhere from
1.5-2.0 inches areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 113 PM Thursday...

In the wake of the cold front, Monday will finally be a break from
the intense heat. Many of the lowlands spots will see highs in the
upper 80s with slightly lower humidity, thanks to a northwest wind
in a postfrontal airmass. Unfortunately, this isn`t going to last
very long because models are showing another ridge building in from
the west by Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures rebounding into
the middle 90s across the lowlands again. Chances of rain may return
again next Wednesday as another front approaches from the west. Next
Thursday is expected to be cooler again in the wake of a front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Friday...

Some patchy fog could form this morning, mainly in mountain
river valleys. There is also a small chance of afternoon
thunderstorms along the mountains and in portions of southeast
Ohio, but chances are too small to include in the TAFs. Outside
of these 2 items, expect VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Medium with fog, otherwise high.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 06/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY