990
FXUS61 KRLX 171452
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1052 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged heat wave builds throughout the week. Isolated
showers or storms will be possible today and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM Monday...

Increased PoPs across the northeast to better reflect current
radar trends.

As of 625 AM Monday...

Showers and a few storms have developed within the northern
half of the CWA this morning. Have freshened up PoPs to reflect
the precipitation coverage seen on radar.

As of 300 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Heat indices will reach the lower 100s across parts of the
  lowlands this afternoon.
* Heat Advisory begins late this morning.

While high pressure will be present in the upper levels, a surface
front crosses the area early this morning and brings the possibility
of a shower or two as it moves through. Following the departure
of the front, moisture and very warm air are expected to feed
into the area while upper level high pressure remains in place
overhead. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may
begin to develop as heat and humidity create unstable conditions
this afternoon and evening. While forecast soundings show an
impressive amount of CAPE, shear should be modest. A few storms
could become strong, with heavy rain also a possibility as
precipitable water values rise into the 1.5 to 2 inch range.
Any convective activity will taper off with the loss of daytime
heating, then quieter conditions are expected overnight.

High temperatures are projected to climb into the 90s across much of
the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains. The heat
index will be even higher, with low 100s possible for portions
of the lowlands this afternoon. A Heat Advisory begins late
this morning and then continues beyond the near term period as
a heat wave persists for much of the week.

Heat safety will be important this week, so here are a few tips:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals
* Know the signs of heat illness

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* Heat Advisory continues Tuesday through Friday.

An upper-level ridge will shift a bit northward into Virginia
and close to the CWA, which should help suppress shower or storm
activity on Tuesday, though isolated activity can`t be entirely
ruled out for the mountains or up north. Tuesday will feature
fairly high dewpoints, with many locations forecast to be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Combined with forecast highs in the
mid-90s, heat index values will likely get into the lower 100s
in many lowland locations, much of the lower elevations are
forecast to hit Heat Advisory criteria.

We are forecasting it to be just about as hot on Wednesday as
on Tuesday, but more dry air is expected to move in aloft. As
some of this mixes down in daytime heating, afternoon surface
dew points likely will get limited to the lower 60s, which will
keep heat index values under 100F. Thus we may not quite hit
Advisory criteria on Wednesday, but it could be close in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Heat Advisory continues through Friday.

While the heat won`t be going anywhere, and indeeds seems
likely to increase gradually through the end of the week, dry
air aloft is forecast to deepen and strengthen as we remain
squarely under the upper-level ridge and surface high. Abundant
mixing down of this dry air should help to limit surface dew
points to the low to mid 60s for Thursday and Friday, which may
help keep heat index values under 100F. However, the messaging
on health and infrastructure risks will remain the same due to
the longevity of the heat, so in coordination with neighbors, we
posted a Heat Advisory for the whole work week. By Saturday,
the pattern may begin to shift ahead of a front pushing across
the Midwest, and light SW`ly breezes could boost dew points
enough to push heat index values over 100F once again, so there
is a good chance that we will need to extend the Advisory to
include Saturday.


Under the heart of the ridge, with significant dry air aloft, no
shower or storm activity is expected through Friday. Isolated
activity is possible Saturday if the ridge starts to shift to the
southeast as the upper trough and surface front move across the
central US. Models are in good agreement on a front pushing across
the region early next week, but timing is still uncertain, with the
deterministic models ranging from Sunday afternoon to Monday. Thus
while area-wide Chance POPs are in place for Sunday, the confidence
isn`t there currently to go higher at that lead time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 625 AM Monday...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible as a front
lifts to the north this morning. Additional activity is
expected to develop as heat and humidity increase this
afternoon. While VFR should continue for the majority of the
day, brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur in showers and
storms. Activity diminishes after sundown, then at least partial
clearing and calm surface flow may allow for patches of valley
fog to form overnight.

Outside of storms, winds remain light with a south to southwest
direction today. Calm to light southerly winds are then expected
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR could occur in showers or
thunderstorms today and valley fog tonight.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Monday...

A prolonged heat wave builds across the area this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to
Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Monday, 6/17  |  Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) |
HTS | 93 /100 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) |
CKB | 91 / 96 (1967) | 94 / 96 (1936) | 94 / 94 (1994) |
PKB | 92 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) |
BKW | 84 / 93 (1936) | 87 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 90 (1944) |
EKN | 88 / 92 (1936) | 91 / 91 (1994) | 92 / 89 (1905) |
--------------------------------------------------------
      Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  | Saturday, 6/22
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 95 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) |
HTS | 97 /100 (1931) | 99 / 99 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) |
CKB | 95 / 94 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) |
PKB | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) | 96 / 98 (1988) |
BKW | 89 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) |
EKN | 92 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave
versus the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     99     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     96     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     92     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     93     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JP/JLB
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...