873
FXUS61 KRLX 161246
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
846 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended heat wave builds Sunday through next week amid
mainly dry weather courtesy of an upper level ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 845 AM Sunday...

Some of the CAMs are showing the potential for isolated showers
and thunderstorms to develop over portions of southern West
Virginia and southwest Virginia this afternoon. With MLCAPE
potentially reaching 1,500-2,000 J/kg and dew points in the
lower 70s in that area, we have added slight chances for pop up
showers and t-storms into the evening. With no upper-level
trigger or surface boundary, most should remain dry, but some
could have the potential to see a few downpours.

As of 150 AM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Although Heat Index values will likely remain below advisory
  criteria Sunday, the air will still feel uncomfortably hot and
  humid. Remember to practice heat safety!

Today will likely be the first of many above 90F for most
lowland locations, with forecast highs up to the mid-90s.
Compared to the next several days, dew points won`t be as bad
today, `only` in the mid-60s during the afternoon hours, so heat
index values aren`t forecast to crack the 100F advisory level.
The Excessive Heat Watch will remain in effect for now, for the
potential need for a warning or advisory on any or multiple days
this week.

Aside from the heat, we look to be dry under mostly clear skies
today and tonight, with just some thin high clouds expected over
the area. Gentle S`ly breezes develop today, with a few gusts
possible, before calming down again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Key Point:
* Excessive Heat Watch begins Monday.

An area of high pressure in the upper levels will already be in
control over much of the eastern US at the beginning of the work
week. This upper high is expected to remain present throughout the
short term period and becomes a sort of bulwark preventing shortwave
energy from reaching the CWA. That being said, thunderstorms will be
a possibility as heat and humidity contribute towards an unstable
environment. CAPE values surpassing 2500 J/kg each afternoon
and evening could support isolated strong storms, which may also
be slow moving due to a lack of shear.

Daily high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s for the
lowlands and upper 70s to low 90s along the mountains. Meanwhile,
the heat index is expected to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s
for the lowlands both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. An Excessive
Heat Watch begins on Monday and continues through the end of the
work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Key Point:
* Excessive Heat Watch continues through Friday.

Unyielding high pressure is expected to sustain hot weather through
the second half of the work week. Mostly dry conditions are
currently forecast for the long term period, though there is a small
possibility that heat and humidity could spur development of a few
afternoon storms. High pressure eventually loosens its grip and
begins to recede south next weekend.

High temperatures are still anticipated to encroach upon record
values at some of the climate sites mid to late week. See
climate section below.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions and calm winds or gentle breezes are expected
through the TAF period. A few gusts in the mountains could be up
to 15 knots or so this afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

A prolonged heat wave builds today through next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Sunday, June 16
to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

          Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Sunday, 6/16  |   Monday, 6/17 |  Tuesday, 6/18 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 92 / 97 (1952) | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) |
HTS | 93 / 97 (1952) | 93 /100 (1936) | 94 / 98 (1944) |
CKB | 90 / 95 (2022) | 90 / 96 (1967) | 93 / 96 (1936) |
PKB | 92 / 97 (1952) | 92 / 98 (1936) | 94 / 98 (1944) |
BKW | 84 / 93 (1952) | 85 / 93 (1936) | 88 / 93 (1936) |
EKN | 87 / 93 (1952) | 89 / 92 (1936) | 90 / 91 (1994) |
--------------------------------------------------------
     Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 95 / 98 (1919) | 96 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 96 / 98 (1994) | 97 /100 (1931) | 97 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 95 / 94 (1994) | 95 / 94 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 96 / 95 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 88 / 90 (1944) | 89 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 92 / 89 (1905) | 92 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave
versus the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |    97      |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |    97      |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |    96      |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |    98      |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |    90      |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |    93      |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/JMC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...FK

CLIMATE...