Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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142 FXUS61 KRLX 200654 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 254 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM Thursday... Key Points: * High pressure maintains control today and tonight. * Heat advisory remains in effect. Patchy fog is beginning to form and should gradually expand in coverage before daybreak. Fog will dissipate once the sun comes up, then predominantly dry conditions are expected as high pressure remains in control through tonight. This persistent high pressure centered overhead will yield yet another hot day, with high temperatures forecast to be in the 90s in the lowlands. While 80s to 90s are expected for much of the mountains, the higher ridges may not rise above upper 70s. Heat index values for today may rise a bit higher than yesterday, with mid to upper 90s and a sprinkling of triple digits possible across the lowlands. No changes are planned for the Heat Advisory which remains in effect through Saturday evening. Similar to the past couple of nights, low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands and 60s along the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 206 PM Wednesday... Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through Saturday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will generally only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, should warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across much of the lowland counties through at least Saturday. An isolated severe storm is possible on Saturday, with a damaging wind threat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1205 PM Wednesday... Ridge finally starts to break down on Sunday, as low pressure moves east across the Great Lakes region, eventually sweeping a cold front through the area at the start of the long term period. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous on Sunday with the approach of this system, and an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out Sunday and Sunday evening/night. Frontal boundary will move east of the area on Monday, for drier conditions, as well as a welcome reprieve from the oppressive heat. Weather beyond Monday is uncertain at this point, but general consensus at this point is to maintain mainly dry conditions. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 AM Thursday... VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period as high pressure maintains control. The only exception to this will be sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities within fog that forms early this morning. IFR or worse will be possible at a few terminals before fog dissipates between 11-13Z. Calm to light winds should carry into the morning, then flow will be light and variable for the remainder of the day before calming again around 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog. Otherwise, High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog could vary from the current forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/20/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L M L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... As of 1030 PM Wednesday... A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures are forcast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Thursday, June 20 to Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values. Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------------------------- Thursday, 6/20 | Friday, 6/21 | --------------------------------------- CRW | 93 / 99 (1931) | 95 /105 (1931) | HTS | 94 /100 (1931) | 95 / 99 (1953) | CKB | 92 / 94 (1931) | 93 / 98 (1953) | PKB | 94 / 97 (1931) | 96 / 97 (1953) | BKW | 87 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 93 (1953) | EKN | 91 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 92 (1953) | --------------------------------------- Saturday, 6/22 | Sunday, 6/23 | --------------------------------------- CRW | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) | HTS | 99 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1930) | CKB | 96 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) | PKB | 98 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) | BKW | 92 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 91 (1931) | EKN | 94 / 93 (1923) | 90 / 89 (1899) | --------------------------------------- Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records. Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 97 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 99 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 96 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 92 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 94 | 96 (2012) | ----------------------------------------- Records Broken Thus Far --------------------------------------------------- Date Site New Record Old Record | --------------------------------------------------- June 18th (Tues.) | EKN | 92 | 91 (1994) | June 19th (Weds.) | EKN | 90 | 89 (1905) | --------------------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JLB CLIMATE...TRM/JLB/GW