213
FXUS61 KRLX 240658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
258 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the
weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Synoptically you have a disturbance, a small upper level short
wave associated with a weak surface low bringing the morning
rain activity. Then we have an upper level closed low headed
our way from the northwest. This feature will setup directly
west of the area and spin cyclonically around through this
period bringing plenty of moisture up from the deep south. This
pattern will continue beyond this period.

The main theme of today will be stratiform rain initially with
high cloud bases and dark gloomy skies. By the afternoon,
more convective rain regime will takeover with shower and storm
activity becoming very apparent or at least by mid afternoon.
Any thunderstorm may become strong to severe with strong upper
level support. CAPE values exceed 2500 J/kg+ along with very
high shear to support longer lived updrafts. DCAPE values are at
least modest and will support downbursts, especially since we
have high moisture content in the column and very sufficient or
rather excessive PWATs.

With fair amount of helicity and low LCLs, along with high
lifted index and no CIN, we cannot rule out a tornado or two.
This all hazards threat could virtually happen anywhere, but
the higher probability will be across southwestern WV,
northeast KY and southeast OH. There should be a short lived
lull during the late evening into the overnight with rain
returning by the morning.

With cloudier skies than yesterday and potential rain activity
kept temperatures close to guidance which equated to close to
what we had for highs yesterday with a diurnal swing for lows in
the low to mid 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

Period begins with deep southwesterly flow across the area, with an
upper low/trough axis just to our west. Shortwaves moving through
the flow early Wednesday will keep conditions unsettled across the
area. However, the upper low will gradually move south and deepen
through the day Wednesday into Thursday,  with some of the moisture
and lift associated with it remaining south and west of our area,
with a decrease in shower activity for us. Although not overly warm
during the period, conditions will remain muggy, particularly for
this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

Potential for more beneficial rain exists in the long term period. A
tropical system will move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico region,
and eventually merge with upper low across the southern U.S. There
still remains some uncertainty in the exact path of the low and
associated moisture across our region, and a farther west solution
would obviously mean less beneficial rain for our area, along with
the potential for decreased moisture across the lowlands in
southeasterly downslope flow. Maintained a central blend of guidance
for Friday through the weekend for now. Regardless of the exact
path, Friday looks to be rather gusty across the area as the
pressure gradient and winds aloft increase with the approaching low,
particularly across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Even with shower and storm activity around the area the sites
should get to endure VFR for the most part. Have some stratocu
and mid clouds for the time being then by the late morning
chances for additional shower and especially storm potential
will be on the table. Lower Cu decks will likely be the culprit
today with the potential for storms through the afternoon,
however thinking the cloud decks should stay in the VFR range or
at least really close to the MVFR/VFR threshold. Outside a
temporary reduced VIS under a shower the predominant VIS should
stay unrestricted. Clouds may lift slightly by the early
evening then then more rain expected in the late afternoon and
then a lull by the evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 09/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ