294
FXUS61 KRLX 231548
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1148 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today, with the
front crossing tonight. More seasonable air can be expected
behind the front on Monday. Heating up again midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 AM Sunday...

Temperatures were off to a fast start this rather warm morning
and adjusted accordingly. High temperatures today were not
affected as the heat will be intercepted by clouds, showers and
thunderstorms. Added gusty winds, small hail, and heavy
rainfall wording to the forecast for later this afternoon and
this evening.

As of 1240 AM Sunday...

Unseasonably warm air will continue today, but not as hot as the
past week. An approaching cold front will allow for the
development of showers and thunderstorms today. SPC has
outlooked the region with a chance of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. With a freezing level of 15000 to 16000
feet, thinking that the main threat will be wind. With decent
low level shear and helicity values, central Ohio and
northwestern West Virginia even have a small chance of tornados.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Showers and a few lingering thunderstorms will be tapering off in
the mountains by daybreak on Monday as the cold front pushes
eastward. Only a slight chance for some showers will remain across
the mountains of southern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

A secondary cold front with high pressure hot on its heels will then
move through during the morning to reinforce NW`rly flow, drier air
and near normal to slightly below temperatures. The lowlands will
finally see temperatures in the low to mid 80s with afternoon RH
values in the 40s to low 50s. The mountains will range anywhere from
the upper 60s across the highest elevations to around 80 for the
lower elevations and mountain valleys.

With high pressure in place to decouple the region, cool and
comfortable lows are expected Monday night with 50s and low 60s for
the lowlands; 50s in the mountains. Patchy to dense fog will likely
form in the river valleys overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1148 AM Sunday...

Frontal boundary and upper trough will move east of the area late
Wednesday night or early Thursday, with high pressure building into
the region behind it. This should usher in a brief period of cooler
and drier weather for Thursday. By Friday into the weekend, heat
returns, as southerly flow increases out ahead of the next
system, which will move into the area over the weekend, with
additional rounds of showers and storms. A bit early to say for
sure, but heat headlines may be needed during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 555 AM Sunday...

An approaching cold front will then allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop today. Generally VFR conditions can be
expected outside of the precipitation.

A cold front will then swing through tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will once again cause restrictions along and ahead
of the front. Behind the front, some MVFR ceilings are possible
in the western upslope region of the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY