239
FXUS61 KRLX 120631
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday.
Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot
and muggy to end the week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

A quiet pattern continues as troughing over the east coast is
increasingly replaced by high zonal flow aloft with high pressure at
the surface. The main forecast issue for this morning and again
Thursday morning will be coverage of fog with near zero flow through
10kft, seasonably moist low levels, and dry air in the mid-levels
overhead. With lack of substantial recent rainfall will confined any
significantly reduced visibilities to the valleys with a patchy fog
mention elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

High pressure remains in control on Thursday, alongside the
start of what will be a very unseasonably hot next several days.

A brief interruption in the overall dry weather pattern arrives
early Friday morning along a cold front. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms sink down from the north around daybreak along the
Ohio River Valley, reaching as far south as the southern West
Virginia coalfields Friday afternoon before the front exits to
the east. Currently do not see strong evidence with this frontal
passage to support severe weather on Friday, but embedded
thunderstorms will bring the chance for an uptick in wind gusts
and a decent downpour. Otherwise, surface high pressure will
quickly regain dominance over the area late Friday night.

Thursday high temperatures climb up into the upper 80s for much
of the lower elevations, coupled with an increase in humidity.
Mid to upper level clouds drifting overhead with the cold front
Friday will impede on full solar radiation and will keep
afternoon highs a few degrees lower, but still unseasonably warm
for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Strong upper level ridging takes center stage for the weekend
and into the start of next week. Not only will this support
mostly dry weather, but also increasingly hot and humid
conditions. A surface warm front lifts northward on Sunday,
giving rise to temperatures stemming up into the low 90s across
the Tri-State area and muggy conditions in response to rising
humidity levels. Heat concerns continue through the end of the
forecast period as the ridge retains residency over the east
coast. Will continue to highlight in the HWO the growing
possibility of heat index values stretching into the upper 90s
and possible triple digits each afternoon from Sunday into the
middle of next week.

In terms of precipitation, next opportunity for showers/storms
may track in from the south Monday afternoon in the wake of the
warm frontal passage. Chances remain low (around 25% at best)
for the southern coalfields and up the spine of the Appalachians
during peak heating hours before diminishing after sunset. Daily
chances for afternoon convection look plausible for Tuesday and
beyond in the midst of the heat and humidity across the entire
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

With just thin cirrus floating overhead, light winds, and dry mid-
levels above us, valley fog will be the main forecast concern this
morning. Already starting to see patchy fog develop near CRW/EKN and
would expect the valleys to continue to fill in toward daybreak.
Highest confidence in IFR impacts at EKN/CRW/CKB, but could also see
a brief period of IFR near PKB/HTS near daybreak. Any fog that does
form mixing out through 13Z. Thereafter, continued SCT to
occasionally BKN cirrus.

Winds remain light, weakly favoring a northerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog this morning. Otherwise,
high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog this morning could
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 06/12/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JP