299
FXUS61 KRLX 160609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
209 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended heat wave builds Sunday through next week amid
mainly dry weather courtesy of an upper level ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Although Heat Index values will likely remain below advisory
  criteria Sunday, the air will still feel uncomfortably hot and
  humid. Remember to practice heat safety!

Today will likely be the first of many above 90F for most
lowland locations, with forecast highs up to the mid-90s.
Compared to the next several days, dew points won`t be as bad
today, `only` in the mid-60s during the afternoon hours, so heat
index values aren`t forecast to crack the 100F advisory level.
The Excessive Heat Watch will remain in effect for now, for the
potential need for a warning or advisory on any or multiple days
this week.

Aside from the heat, we look to be dry under mostly clear skies
today and tonight, with just some thin high clouds expected over
the area. Gentle S`ly breezes develop today, with a few gusts
possible, before calming down again tonight.

&&


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Heat wave initiates next week.
* Excessive Heat Watch in effect Monday through Friday.

Ample upper level high pressure across the southeastern US Sunday
night will move overhead by Monday, remaining in place through
Tuesday. This system will block any shortwave over our area through
this period.

However, H850 flow turns southwest pumping rich theta-e airmass into
our area. Dewpoints in the mid 60s Sunday night will increase to the
lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggests PWATs above 2
standard deviation from climatology from 1.6 to 2 inches. Mostly
sunny skies will provide the heat needed to destabilize the
atmosphere. Local soundings shows a slender tall CAPE (equilibrium
level about 40kft), and low level mixing signatures Monday afternoon
and evening. Under a high CAPE (+2500 J/Kg) and low deep shear
environment, expect at least isolated strong-slow moving
thunderstorms. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable to produce heavy
rain and strong wind gusts. SPC has the area outlooked just in
general thunderstorms for now. The same environment will persist
into Tuesday, with few slow-moving strong convection during the
afternoon and evening hours possible.

A second weather hazard will be the building heat wave across the
region. Monday will feel hot, with highs in the mid 90s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s higher elevations. Heat index
will reach the upper 90s, with few spots reaching 100 degrees across
the lowlands, requiring a heat advisory for some areas on Monday.
Since it may be a long stretch of heat through the end of the week,
will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Monday through Friday,
transitioning into advisory or warning depending on weather
conditions. As humidity and heat increases Tuesday, heat index
values exceeding 100 will be more widespread, requiring continuation
or upgrades of heat headlines Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures are projected to climb towards record highs at some
locations. Please see the climate section below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Hot weather continues into the second half of the work week.

High pressure remains in control Wednesday night through the end of
the week, remaining mainly dry and hot. Afternoon convection cannot
be entirely rule out due to increasing moisture and heat. However
confidence is low due to high pressure at the surface and aloft, so
will keep the area dry for now.

Mid to late week highs are currently forecast to approach or even
exceed record high temperatures at some of the climate sites. Please
see the climate section below for more details.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions and calm winds or gentle breezes are expected
through the TAF period. A few gusts in the mountains could be up
to 15 knots or so this afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 06/16/24
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

A prolonged heat wave builds Sunday through next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Sunday, June 16
to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

          Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Sunday, 6/16  |   Monday, 6/17 |  Tuesday, 6/18 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 94 / 97 (1952) | 94 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) |
HTS | 96 / 97 (1952) | 96 /100 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) |
CKB | 91 / 95 (2022) | 95 / 96 (1967) | 95 / 96 (1936) |
PKB | 92 / 97 (1952) | 96 / 98 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) |
BKW | 86 / 93 (1952) | 88 / 93 (1936) | 89 / 93 (1936) |
EKN | 88 / 93 (1952) | 91 / 92 (1936) | 93 / 91 (1994) |
--------------------------------------------------------
     Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 96 / 98 (1919) | 96 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 96 / 98 (1994) | 98 /100 (1931) | 99 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 96 / 94 (1994) | 96 / 94 (1931) | 95 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 96 / 95 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 89 / 90 (1944) | 89 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 94 / 89 (1905) | 93 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave
versus the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |    97      |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |    99      |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |    96      |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |    98      |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |    90      |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |    94      |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...FK

CLIMATE...