106
FXUS61 KRLX 150003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
803 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through
this evening with a cold front. An extended stretch of hot and
dry weather will begin Sunday and last much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 520 PM Friday...

Made updates to temperatures, cloud cover, and PoPs through this
evening. Isolated thunderstorms continue to develop just north
of the CWA where moisture and forcing via low-level convergence
are greatest, and will gradually slide southeast towards/into
the northern portion of the CWA. While most storms have remained
sub-severe at this point, the potential for isolated severe
thunderstorms continues through the evening across SE OH into
northern WV as a cold front continues to slide through the
region. The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail. Further south, timing and drier air will limit the severe
potential, but cannot rule out an isolated strong, perhaps a
severe storm later this evening. Activity will steadily diminish
after sunset.

As of 230 PM Friday...

After coordinating with SPC, a severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued for northern counties in southeast OH, and northern
WV until 9 PM this evening. Plenty of sunshine and available
moisture will continue to destabilize the atmosphere this
afternoon providing descent bouyancy. Strong to severe
thunderstorm are expected.

As of 130 PM Friday...

Cold front exits east of the Appalachians late this evening, with
lingering light showers ending by midnight. Surface high pressure
builds from the north tonight into Sunday providing light to calm
flow and mostly clear skies. This set up will allow for river valley
fog to develop along river valleys and over areas that received
rainfall today and tonight. Any fog or low stratus that manage to
develop will quickly dissipate by 9 AM Saturday.

Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 60s across NE KY, SW VA
and southern WV, ranging into the 50s northern sections and
northeast mountains. Plenty of sunshine and light winds will prevail
on Saturday providing a warm afternoon, with temperatures ranging
from the mid 80s lowlands, into the lower 70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Upper-level high pressure will be centered over the Deep South
Sunday, slowly moving northeastward throughout the day. Temperatures
will start to heat up across the lowlands with afternoon highs
expected to be in the lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
become southerly, leading to the return of more humidity. Expect
heat indices to reach the lower and middle 90s across the
lowlands Sunday afternoon. This will just be the start of an
extended stretch of hot and dry weather on the way. The cooler
spots will be the higher elevations of the West Virginia
mountains, where temperatures will remain in the 70s and lower
80s during the hottest parts of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Friday...

Confidence in the potential of a heat wave over the region next week
is increasing. Models seem to be coming into better agreement
regarding the placement of the upper-level ridge axis, which seems
to be right over or slightly east of the Appalachian mountains for
much of next week. This would provide support for an extended
stretch of very hot and dry weather across most of the region, with
the exception of the higher elevations, where temperatures will be
cooler and isolated thunderstorms may develop. Rain chances next
week look minimal at this time, but if the upper-level ridge ends up
being farther to the east than what models are currently predicting,
then our region could end up cloudier and cooler with more
convection. That will be one thing to watch over the coming days
with subsequent model runs. However, if our current forecast of
largely dry weather pans out, many places will likely see worsening
drought conditions throughout the week.

From Monday through next Thursday, highs are projected to reach the
upper 90s across the lowlands with heat index values approaching 100
degrees each afternoon. It will be very important to put heat safety
into practice next week. This includes drinking plenty of fluids,
taking frequent breaks in the air conditioning or the shade whenever
possible, checking on the elderly and sensitive groups, and using
plenty of sunscreen. Stay tuned for updates as the potential heat
wave approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...

ISOL/SCT showers and thunderstorms are moving through the
northern portion of the CWA currently as a cold front moves
through. Activity should begin to weaken and dissipate over the
next few hours as the front moves southward. In the meantime,
brief MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY restrictions will be possible within
any thunderstorms, along with the potential for strong wind
gusts. Once showers/storms dissipate through early tonight, the
main aviation concern will be fog. Fog should mainly be confined
to areas that received rainfall today and/or the deeper river
valleys of southern/eastern WV and southwest VA. Any fog that
develops lifts/dissipates through ~12Z. VFR conditions then
prevail through the end of the TAF period.

Outside of any t-storms, light north to northeasterly flow is
expected throughout the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog coverage and intensity
later tonight; high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY restrictions are
possible within any thunderstorms this evening, along with gusty
winds. Fog extent and timing tonight may differ from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 06/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW