308
FXUS61 KRLX 230735
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms continue today and will prevail
through at least midweek, bringing beneficial rain to the area.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Sunday...

Made amendments to the precipitation forecast to account for
earlier arrival of showers and isolated thunderstorms with a
semi-stationary front over the area. Will continue to see this
activity spread across the area from west to east overnight as a
cold front approaches from the west.

As of 119 PM Sunday...

After a cloudy and foggy start to the day in many spots, we can
expect full sunshine the rest of today. It will be an
unseasonably hot afternoon for the first official day of Fall
with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 90s across
the lowlands and the mid 80s in the mountains. Relative humidity
will be low this afternoon, bottoming out at 30-40% across the
central WV lowlands and southeast OH. However, light and
variable winds should mitigate the fire threat today.

High cirrus clouds will approach from the west by late this
afternoon and this evening ahead of another low pressure system.
A wave of 500-mb vorticity ahead of that low pressure system
will bring showers into the area from west to east beginning
mainly midnight, lasting through mid-morning Monday. Rain can
be heavy at times with some embedded thunder also possible. High
resolution models suggest that this batch of rain should be gone
by early Monday afternoon, with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible later in the day as another wave of mid-
level energy approaches. Severe weather is generally not
expected Monday afternoon with weak instability over our area.
Monday should be much cooler than today with more clouds than
sun. Highs should only reach the lower 80s in the lowlands and
the upper 70s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Unsettled weather continues to bring beneficial rainfall to the
forecast area during the period in response to a stalled
frontal boundary loiters overhead. Rain will grow more bountiful
Tuesday evening into the overnight period as a nearly stacked
disturbance ventures down from the Midwest. This feature will
place the forecast area on the eastern side of the parent
trough, ushering in waves of moisture and vorticity to enhance
rainfall accumulations. An uptick in instability may also yield
strong to possibly severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and
evening, but given the uncertainty of antecedent convective
trends during the day to the west, SPC has painted a broad
Marginal Risk for the area for damaging wind potential.

The cold front sails into the area overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, bringing diminishing shower chances across
the western flank of the CWA. The front is progged to get hung
up somewhere in and around Central Appalachia for midweek, which
will maintain unsettled weather through the short term and
beyond into the long term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

All eyes will be on a disturbance venturing up from the Gulf
Coast heading into the second half of the work week. Global
models hint that this will eventually congeal with the upper
level low dropping down from the Midwest previously discussed in
the short term period and circulate over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. The absorption of this potential tropical system will
fling a plethora of tropical moisture up into the area. This
will continue to churn episodic rounds of showers and storms
heading into next weekend. Opted to maintain central guidance
POPs for this section of the forecast period as there remains
some uncertainty on where surface features will transpire. Heavy
downpours from this unsettled weather pattern will gradually
give rise to flooding concerns for late in the week into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM Monday...

A stationary boundary will likely create lower CIGs (MVFR) at
times with periodic showers which may or may not reduce VIS
temporarily. Due to cloud coverage not anticipating a lot of
fog, but EKN will likely develop some LIFR/VLIFR for this
morning and scatter out by stratiform rain expected by late
morning. Chances of shower activity will remain until this
evening when a lull may take place before more fog and shower
activity ramps up again when the second disturbance enters from
the west. Thunderstorms may become prevalent during the
afternoon hours at least passing by the vicinity of sites but
chances will taper off by the early evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low ceilings and showers/storms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JZ