076
FXUS61 KRLX 230617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
217 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase tonight and will
last through Wednesday, bringing beneficial rainfall to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1005 PM Sunday...

Made amendments to the precipitation forecast to account for
earlier arrival of showers and isolated thunderstorms with a
semi-stationary front over the area. Will continue to see this
activity spread across the area from west to east overnight as a
cold front approaches from the west.

As of 119 PM Sunday...

After a cloudy and foggy start to the day in many spots, we can
expect full sunshine the rest of today. It will be an
unseasonably hot afternoon for the first official day of Fall
with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 90s across
the lowlands and the mid 80s in the mountains. Relative humidity
will be low this afternoon, bottoming out at 30-40% across the
central WV lowlands and southeast OH. However, light and
variable winds should mitigate the fire threat today.

High cirrus clouds will approach from the west by late this
afternoon and this evening ahead of another low pressure system.
A wave of 500-mb vorticity ahead of that low pressure system
will bring showers into the area from west to east beginning
mainly midnight, lasting through mid-morning Monday. Rain can
be heavy at times with some embedded thunder also possible. High
resolution models suggest that this batch of rain should be gone
by early Monday afternoon, with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible later in the day as another wave of mid-
level energy approaches. Severe weather is generally not
expected Monday afternoon with weak instability over our area.
Monday should be much cooler than today with more clouds than
sun. Highs should only reach the lower 80s in the lowlands and
the upper 70s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Moisture will remain over the region Monday night with a frontal
boundary stalled near the area. An upper level disturbance will then
move a surface low along the front for Tuesday, pushing the frontal
boundary eastward somewhat. Much of the region will remain in the
moist air mass for Tuesday night. This will provide chance of
showers and thunderstorms for Monday night through Tuesday night,
with the best chances being Tuesday afternoon as the upper level
disturbance provides some energy during the daytime heating.
Beneficial rainfall is possible in portions of the drought area,
although the convective nature of the precipitation doesn`t
guarantee that all areas will see significant precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...

Models are starting to come into slightly better agreement for
the extended period. A frontal boundary will stall near the area
for Wednesday and Wednesday night as an upper level low cuts
off over the central United States. This low will then interact
with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, causing a
fujiwhara effect. This will sling the tropical system northward
and then northwestward, keeping the bulk of the system west of
our region. Models do show some outer bands moving into our
area and possibly evening stalling in our vicinity. Still way to
early to put stock in the timing and location of the outer band
moisture, but if this were to stall over the area, some heavy
rains would be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM Monday...

A stationary boundary will likely create lower CIGs (MVFR) at
times with periodic showers which may or may not reduce VIS
temporarily. Due to cloud coverage not anticipating a lot of
fog, but EKN will likely develop some LIFR/VLIFR for this
morning and scatter out by stratiform rain expected by late
morning. Chances of shower activity will remain until this
evening when a lull may take place before more fog and shower
activity ramps up again when the second disturbance enters from
the west. Thunderstorms may become prevalent during the
afternoon hours at least passing by the vicinity of sites but
chances will taper off by the early evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low ceilings and showers/storms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ