411
FXUS61 KRLX 010658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
258 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and dry to start the work week, then temperatures warm
for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives Wednesday. Semi-
stationary cold front expected on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 257 AM Monday...

Fresher and drier north to northeast flow provides stable conditions
through tonight, courtesy of a broad high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes. Expect mostly clear skies and comfortable temperatures
with dewpoints lowering into the upper 40s, and afternoon
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s across the lowlands, into
the mid 60s higher elevations. Lows tonight will be below normal as
well with temperatures mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Beginning Tuesday, there will be southerly flow going into
effect along with mostly clear skies and high pressure which
will all bring temperatures back up to above normal for this
time of year. Temperatures will continue to climb into
Wednesday although high pressure at the surface will fleet
toward the east, but we will have upper level ridging slowing
down the next system to approach from the west Wednesday. This
system will bring a cold front into the area by Wednesday night
bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The front will hang up across the area into Thursday due to
high pressure south of the area creating weak zonal flow
parallel to the front. Southeasterly flow will be orientated
almost perpendicular to the front which will bring in moisture
creating more potential for shower activity along with heavy
downpours which could cause some excessive rainfall and
localized flooding issues. If the 850mb flow becomes more
southerly then a Maddox upper level ridge pattern setup may
come forth bringing a greater risk for flash flooding.

Due to weak upper level flow and the frontal boundary
orientated west to east along the 500mb ridge axis this
pattern is known to be associated with many flash flood events.
This occurs related to synoptic scale subsidence suppressing
convection which allows diabatic heating processes to steepen
lapse rates and also accumulate an abundant amount of moisture.

These frontal types are common during the warm season when
dynamics are weak. With moisture in the upper levels on Thursday
this could spark some training cells along the frontal
boundary which could promote more flash flooding potential into
Friday when the front finally lifts out due to the next system
from entering the region bringing another front which will be
more north to south orientated. The heaviest rainfall will be on
the warm side of the front or near the 500mb large-scale ridge
axis with dewpoint depression 5 degrees C or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

The aforementioned front on Friday associated with another
system coming from the northwest will drags its cold front
through late Friday night into Saturday. The good news is this
feature will push the semi-stationary boundary out, however
with two frontal boundaries interacting in the manner that the
models are displaying will create another day of excessive
rainfall potential which may lead to water issues, but this far
out things could change for the better.

So we have an active weather pattern continuing through the
weekend with a short break possibly on Sunday. Thereafter, more
activity is hinted by the long rang models, however that far
out and with model inconsistency elected to accept central
guidance which equated to low chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity, mostly diurnal, for the rest of this
period and beyond through day 8 (Monday).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Expect for the most part VFR conditions prevailing through the
period courtesy of a broad surface high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes. The exception will be for MVFR low stratus about 2500
feet developing along the northern mountains and western foothills
and affecting CKB, EKN and BKW during the overnight hours. Expect
these clouds to gradually dissipate by 14Z Monday.

Winds at 10 knots or less will prevail across most sites, gusting up
to 17 knots at EKN, CRW and HTS through at least 09Z. Then, winds
should subside some as the atmosphere tries to decouple. Monday will
bring continued northerly winds and VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings could be more widespread than
anticipated through 14Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 07/01/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ARJ