205
FXUS61 KRLX 020723
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
323 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Temperatures
warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday.
Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 229 AM Tuesday...

Broad surface high pressure, centered over the NE states today,
drifts east off the NE coast this evening. This will bring southeast
flow today turning southerly tonight. This return flow will result
in a significant warmup across the region today with highs
reaching the the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging
into the lower 70s higher elevations.

Dry weather continues tonight with temperatures lowering into the
mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

  * Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday with
    cold front.

  * There is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across
    SE Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday.

Area of high pressure over the southern CONUS allowing a ridge
pattern to sit over the area. Dry weather will stick around into
early Wednesday afternoon. The ridge will then shrink southward
with an approaching shortwave/cold front from the west. PoPs
then increase gradually from west to east across Ohio through
the afternoon; spreading across much of the forecast area into
the evening.

The front then stalls Wednesday night into Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms carrying over into Thursday as it sits in our
vicinity. There is a marginal risk for severe weather across SE
Ohio and much of Kentucky for Wednesday into Thursday
associated with this system. The main risk will be damaging
winds, but heavy downpours remain possible with precipitable
water reaching 2 inches or higher across the area. Isolated or
localized flash flooding could be possible as a result.

Temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90s across the
lowlands on Wednesday, mid 70s to upper 80s are expected for
the mountains. Slightly less warmer temperatures on Thursday
with most of the area staying in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

The previously mentioned stalled front will gain some steam late
Thursday, pulling off to the north and subsequently taking PoPs
with it. Another cold front looks to swing down with a low
pressure center that will drop out of Canada into the upper
midwest/Great Lakes area. In turn, the start of the weekend
looks unsettled, but a dry period may emerge from Sunday into
Monday with high pressure.

Temperatures look to remain hot and above the seasonable normal
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 131 AM Tuesday...

Broad high pressure will keep widespread VFR conditions across most
sites through the period. The exception will be at EKN where
IFR/LIFR dense valley fog will likely develop from 08Z through 12Z.
Widespread VFR conditions will follow after 12Z under light
southeast flow with occasional gusts in the teens, mainly across the
higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ