825
FXUS61 KRLX 040705
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
305 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front becomes diffuse today. Upper level disturbance and
unsettle conditions provide showers and thunderstorms today. More
active weather is expected Friday with a cold front passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 805 PM Wednesday...

No changes necessary.

As of 120 PM Wednesday...

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of WV, southeast
OH and northeast KY through this evening with heat index values
reaching around 100 during the hottest part of the afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and this evening in southeast Ohio ahead of a 500-mb
shortwave. However, 0-6km shear will be weak (only 20-25 kts)
and instability will be weak to marginal (MLCAPE 500-800 J/kg).
Thunderstorms should lose intensity as they approach and track
east of the Ohio River, where the instability will be even
weaker.

Severe weather potential will be a little greater Thursday with
models showing MLCAPE reaching 1,000-1,200 J/kg in parts of WV
and northeast KY. 0-6 km shear is still expected to be fairly
weak (only around 25 kts in most spots). As ripples of 500-mb
vorticity approaches from the west, a few severe thunderstorms
will be possible during the day, with the main threat being
damaging winds. With weak shear over most of the area, severe
thunderstorms may have difficulty organizing, potentially causing
them to be short lived. The SPC currently has a marginal risk
of severe weather over the region for Thursday. In addition,
there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. PWATs are
projected to be anywhere from 1.8-2.2 inches across the region,
which can lead to heavy downpours. We will have to watch for the
potential for localized flooding if thunderstorms begin to
train over the same areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

Cold front moves northward as a warm front allowing for above normal
temperatures to move back in with southwesterly/southerly flow
taking precedence. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around
90 for the lowlands with mid 70s to the upper 80s being reached in
the mountains.

There is currently a marginal risk for severe weather and
excessive rainfall across the area Friday with a cold front. The
marginal risk for severe being situated across the western
portions of the forecast area along the Ohio River Valley, most
likely due to the timing of the frontal passage. Excessive
rainfall risk is shifted farther to the east and along the
mountains to cover overnight stratiform rainfall with this
front. There could be some strong to severe storms that achieve
damaging winds in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Cold front will be exiting come Saturday morning with chances for
lingering showers or drizzle in the mountains until afternoon. Stark
clearing will take place behind the front, as well with drier
weather settling in for the remainder of the weekend thanks to
high pressure.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Monday as a few
shortwaves look to move through. A cold front also looks to
cross on Tuesday allowing for higher probabilities for showers
and thunderstorms.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the long-term period
with the hottest afternoon looking to be on Monday, where 90s will
be common across most the lowlands. Otherwise, mid to high 80s will
be the normal each afternoon for the lowlands, with the mountains
ranging between the mid 70s and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 129 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish in coverage
and intensity overnight. Some of this activity may bring MVFR
conditions to HTS, CRW, and EKN overnight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail through at least 12Z.

An area of MVFR ceilings may develop during the morning hours
mainly across SE Ohio and north central WV, with improvement to
VFR after 15Z. However, very unstable conditions and the passage
of an upper level short wave will enhance showers and
thunderstorm, some strong to severe, this afternoon and evening.
Very heavy downpours can be expected with the heavier storms.
This will produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR under strong showers
or storms.

Winds will continue to be light from the southwest, except
variable and gusty nearby stronger storms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening
and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ