704
FXUS61 KRLX 251638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1238 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and with a cold front Wednesday. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Tuesday...

Convection from weakening MCS over the midwest this morning is
moving into the area. So far much of this has remained sub
severe, and bulk of any severe is still anticipated to remain to
our west. Latest SPC outlook for day 1 still has just a few of
our SE Ohio counties in a marginal, and this seems reasonable
given latest trends.

Otherwise, should be a bit of a lull in the activity later this
evening and the first part of tonight, however, convection
looks to reinvigorate overnight across the north out ahead of a
cold front and passing shortwave. This should affect our
northern zones late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Severe
threat with this activity looks to be rather low at this point,
but not a non zero risk, and heavy rain is expected.

After the Wednesday morning activity, showers and storms will
redevelop again during the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of
an approaching mid level shortwave trough and the aforementioned
cold front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a
damaging wind threat, possibly a small tornado threat also, and much
of this activity looks to develop towards the end of the near term,
and into the short term period. However, there still remains
uncertainty as to any effects morning convection will play in the
severity of afternoon storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

A cold front and an upper level trough will bring showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models still
differ on the handling of prefrontal energy and precipitation.
This prefrontal convection could be critical to whether enough
energy builds for severe weather. MesoNAM soundings showing many
soundings with over 2000 effective layer CAPE with some dry air
in the mid levels and freezing levels of 13000 to 13500. This
indicates a good potential for damaging winds and large hail, if
the prefrontal energy allows for sufficient heating.

Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while
others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain
POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures will return for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of
year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through Saturday
night or Sunday, with continued differences in timing between
the models.

More seasonable air can once again be expected on Monday behind
the cold front. Once again, some models indicate enough
remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains on Monday, while others indicate a drier
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Visible satellite showing river valley fog this morning, though
most terminals remain unaffected, except for EKN which is
reporting LIFR VIS/CIG. VFR takes back over after any fog
dissipates under clear skies by ~12-13Z this morning. High
pressure nearby keeps the area dry and mostly clear through the
morning until at least early afternoon.

There is a chance for some showers and storms this afternoon
with a passing disturbance, but this looks to remain confined to
southeastern Ohio until tonight into Wednesday morning. Any
storms that form across SE Ohio could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and small hail. PKB will to be the closest
terminal to this activity, but should remain unaffected.

Winds will be mostly calm this morning, picking up out of the
southwest at a light pace after sunrise. Could be breezy at
times mid-morning with mixing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms could be more
numerous and cover more locations than advertised this
afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday
night, and again on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC