840
FXUS61 KRLX 241741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
More seasonable air and drier weather today. Warmer Tuesday.
Another cold front Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Seasonably warm today, hotter on Tuesday.
* High pressure brings drier weather through Tuesday.

High pressure builds into the area during the day while a shortwave
departs to the east. The increasing influence of high pressure
will allow for drier conditions across the area, though clouds
are expected to linger into the evening. After a seasonably warm
day, temperatures for tonight should be near to slightly below
normal as lows ease into the 50s to low 60s. Areas of valley fog
may also form as skies clear and winds become calm to light
overnight into early Tuesday morning.

While dry weather is expected to persist for the majority of
the area on Tuesday, showers could eventually seep into
southeast Ohio late in the day as high pressure gradually shifts
east in advance of the next system. Tuesday will be hotter than
today, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s
in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

By Wednesday, showers and storms will be on the increase once again,
possibly in multiple rounds, with one round possible in the morning,
and another later in the day as an upper trough and cold front start
to move through the area. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe, and will contain heavy downpours, but much of this will also
depend on the effects any morning convection has on the atmosphere,
and whether we can recover enough for much in the way of severe to
occur. For now, SPC has the area highlighted in a marginal risk.
Frontal boundary should be to the east of the mountains by Thursday
morning. Enough moisture may continue to linger across the mountains
on Thursday for additional showers and storms, but most of the area
should be dry, and cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

High pressure will build into the area for Friday, with mainly dry,
but warmer conditions as upper heights build and southerly flow
increases out ahead of the next system. Showers and storms will
increase across the area by late Saturday into Sunday as a cold
front associated with this system, moving east across Canada,
affects the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Ceilings have gradually risen to VFR and should remain so for
the rest of the day while SCT to BKN Cu persist. Areas of
valley fog may form overnight into early Tuesday when winds
become calm and skies gradually clear. Where fog does develop,
CIGs/VIS are likely to dip to IFR or worse. Flight conditions
will return to VFR after fog erodes Tuesday morning, then VFR
should persist for the rest of the TAF period.

Northerly 4-10kt winds, with occasional gusts into the teens
continue this afternoon. Winds become calm to light and
variable overnight, then turn south to southwest and remain
light on Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today. Low for fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time and extent of fog tonight may
vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB