Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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604 FXUS61 KRLX 211048 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 648 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The weekend opens up with a cold front that may produce a few afternoon showers along the mountains. Drying out for the remainder of the weekend, growing unsettled next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM Saturday... Increased clouds across the area this morning as the cold front charges in from the west. Radar trends at the time of writing depicted some isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms moving from west to east through Ohio and Kentucky as mid to upper level vorticity triggers early morning development. Increased POPs a bit along the western flank of the forecast area for this morning, but still think this activity will weaken as it approaches Central Appalachia. As of 215 AM Saturday... The weekend opens up with temperatures more applicable with Summer, as many spots in the Tri-State area will once again reach the low 90s. The culprit warm front responsible for these unseasonably warm forecast highs will sail northward this morning to make room for an encroaching disturbance. A weak cold front will zip through the forecast area today, with contributions from a shortwave trough that will encourage showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain this afternoon. A narrow ribbon from New York down to Virginia was placed in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, scraping a few of our northeast WV counties. Main concerns with stronger storms later today will be gusty winds and hail. A dose of measurable rainfall will also be feasible with activity today, but will be limited to only a few tenths of an inch for the mountains and foothills of West Virginia. Certainly not enough to put a dent in the historic drought underway in the forecast area. The front will vacate the region by late this evening, with lingering showers wrapping up around sunset. A decent signal for river valley fog in the wake of the frontal passage will be present overnight into Sunday morning. This will be especially true for areas that receive precipitation today. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Mid-level ridging is situated across the region on Sunday leading to one last hot and dry day for awhile. While the wind will not be strong, given the heat, drought, and low RH in the 30% range, elevated fire weather is likely during the afternoon. The mid-level ridge flattens and shifts east on Monday with a warm front lifting north through the region. This will result in a significant increase in moisture and showers/storms will overspread the area through the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Confidence in the forecast is high into Thursday morning as a cold front moves through the region bringing showers/storms. While rainfall amounts do not look significant, widespread beneficial rains appear increasingly likely. GEFS plumes cluster most locales across the CWA in the 0.4" to 1.6" range, which align well with WPC QPF that continues to trend upward. Some localized areas could see higher amounts, but probability really drops off around 2". As we move into late week, confidence in the forecast lowers drastically. There are a number of varying solutions as the models become messy, with the GFS currently an outlier. Different solutions vary from a stalled upper level low across the MS/OH valleys, to a large upper level low developing off the eastern Seaboard. This has major implications on the forecast between dry/wet weather. Even with the differences, there is at least some confidence that we are headed toward a wetter and more unsettled pattern. This increased confidence or lean to wetter conditions is picked up in the CPC 6-10 day showing increased chances of above average precip. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 AM Saturday... Fog development was limited overnight to the higher mountain valleys, even staying out of EKN due to the fact that mid to level clouds were building into the area. A weak cold front will progress eastward today, bringing a broken deck of clouds and the chance for showers/storms in the afternoon, primarily along the mountains. Airfields should remain VFR during this timeframe, but VCSH/VCTS was included for sites close to anticipated convection for this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the front, better potential for fog to encompass further down into the lowlands will transpire. This will be especially true for areas that receive rain during the day today. Hinted at this possibility for the concluding hours of this latest TAF issuance. Winds will shift out of the west/northwest for the second half of the day Saturday in response to FROPA, but remaining light and oftentimes variable during the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN may sneak down briefly into IFR this morning within partial clearing skies. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/21/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible Sunday morning with river valley fog in the mountains and down into the central lowlands. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...MEK