Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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433 FXUS61 KRLX 140648 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 248 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry tonight. Chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday with a cold front. An extended stretch of hot weather will begin late this weekend through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1110 PM Thursday... Tweaked overnight temperatures a degree or two lower across most of the CWA. Otherwise, patchy river valley fog is expected to develop overnight across the central/southern portion of the CWA. Additionally, a few showers across portions of SE OH cannot entirely be ruled out later tonight from weakening upstream convection, but any activity would be quite isolated and light. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 510 PM Thursday... Made minor tweaks to cloud cover throughout the evening, but otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Diurnal Cu field is currently most robust along the spine of the northern mountains with anabatic convergence, but given significant dry air in the low-levels, the chance of squeezing out an isolated light shower is quite low. Given such, have removed the mention of isolated showers/storms from all of the higher terrain for the rest of the evening. As of 130 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure slides east, keeping warm and dry weather conditions tonight. Wind aloft increases from the southwest, pumping moist and warm air into the area with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s ahead of a cold front. This cold front will encounter an environment with CAPE about 1800 J/Kg, deep layered shear (about 25 knots southern two thirds of the area), higher across the northern sections (45-50 knots), and SRH about 100 m2/s2. PWATs should reach 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Equilibrium levels about 35kft, dry mid level air, and skinny CAPE sounding signatures suggest strongest storms could produce moderate to heavy downpours and strong to damaging winds Friday afternoon and evening. SPC has outlooked the northern areas under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threat. Muggy tonight, with lows in the mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s higher elevations. Patchy fog possible over most protected river valleys during the predawn hours. Despite of abundant clouds and cooling showers, highs on Friday are expected to reach the upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Friday... Key Points: * Dry and hot this weekend. * May feel like triple digits in the lowlands on Monday. Surface high pressure edges in from the north on Saturday while an upper ridge builds overhead. Ridging then remains present over the area for the balance of the weekend and beginning of the new work week. While temperatures will already be toasty at the start of the weekend, even hotter conditions are anticipated early next week courtesy of the persistent upper level ridge. High temperatures are forecast to break into the 90s in the lowlands on Sunday. Monday may be even hotter, with 80s to low 90s possible along the mountains and mid to upper 90s in the lowlands. A combination of heat and humidity could make it feel like triple digits in the lowlands Monday afternoon. After a dry weekend, increasing heat and humidity reintroduces the chance for isolated convection Monday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Friday... Key Points: * Heat lingers much of next week. * Storms possible in the afternoons. High pressure is expected to sustain a stretch of hot weather through Thursday. While dry conditions are anticipated early each day, hot and humid conditions could initiate some convection in the afternoons. Any activity should wane again after sunset. Models still display some discrepancies on the placement of the upper ridge and how quickly it departs later in the week. For example, the ECMWF leans towards drier conditions with the upper ridge planted overhead while the GFS shows better potential for periods of showers and storms as the upper ridge shifts farther east. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 AM Friday... Some clouds are encroaching from the northwest, but most areas southeast of the Ohio River remain cloud free for now. Calm winds and VFR conditions are noted areawide and any showers over ILN`s area seem to be dissipating before making it into our CWA. Some river valley fog will be possible between now and early Friday morning, but likely more patchy than previous nights, and none has formed as of TAF time, at least that is picked up on satellite. As a cold front pushes down from the north and northwest this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA. However, coverage is questionable so POPs are generally kept on the lower side for the time being, and was not included as prevailing weather in any TAFs. Outside of any t-storms, winds should remain on the lighter side - generally SW-W`ly ahead of the front, and N`ly once it pushes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium due to uncertainty on fog extent and timing tonight, and timing/coverage of t-storms tomorrow. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent and timing tonight may differ from the forecast. Thunderstorms could wind up a bit more widespread than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/14/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible with valley fog on Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/JLB/GW NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...FK