064
FXUS61 KRLX 211634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1234 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend opens up with a cold front that may produce a few
afternoon showers along the mountains. Drying out for the
remainder of the weekend, growing unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 813 AM Saturday...

The forecast remains on track this morning, but added some
slight chance PoPs through the next few hours for portions of
northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio due to ongoing showers in
those areas.

As of 645 AM Saturday...

Increased clouds across the area this morning as the cold front
charges in from the west. Radar trends at the time of writing
depicted some isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms moving
from west to east through Ohio and Kentucky as mid to upper
level vorticity triggers early morning development. Increased
POPs a bit along the western flank of the forecast area for this
morning, but still think this activity will weaken as it
approaches Central Appalachia.

As of 215 AM Saturday...

The weekend opens up with temperatures more applicable with
Summer, as many spots in the Tri-State area will once again
reach the low 90s. The culprit warm front responsible for these
unseasonably warm forecast highs will sail northward this
morning to make room for an encroaching disturbance.

A weak cold front will zip through the forecast area today,
with contributions from a shortwave trough that will encourage
showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain this
afternoon. A narrow ribbon from New York down to Virginia was
placed in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, scraping a
few of our northeast WV counties. Main concerns with stronger
storms later today will be gusty winds and hail.

A dose of measurable rainfall will also be feasible with
activity today, but will be limited to only a few tenths of an
inch for the mountains and foothills of West Virginia.
Certainly not enough to put a dent in the historic drought
underway in the forecast area.

The front will vacate the region by late this evening, with
lingering showers wrapping up around sunset. A decent signal
for river valley fog in the wake of the frontal passage will be
present overnight into Sunday morning. This will be especially
true for areas that receive precipitation today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Ridging will begin to flatten and pivot east of our area at the
beginning of the period as a cold front pushes east into the Ohio
Valley. Low pressure associated with the warm frontal boundary will
bring the potential for showers/storms starting late Sunday night
into Monday and Monday night. High temperatures Monday will be in
the low to mid 80`s across the lowlands and as low as the low 60`s
across the mountains with high humidity as moisture plume advects
into the region from the south.

The system should provide some much needed rain for the area as we
continue to experience extreme drought. Rainfall amounts should
generally be under an inch per WPC QPF but isolated higher totals
are possible across the higher elevations to the east and any areas
that see repeated or heavier rainfall associated with thunderstorms.
There is also a very small risk for excessive rainfall, mainly along
and northwest of the Ohio River in our Ohio counties, which with our
drought conditions would seem to be merely beneficial.

SPC highlights no risk area for severe weather at this time but
there is a marginal to the west of our area that has been
matriculating eastward and could include western portions of the CWA
in the future, especially with instability trending upward (SBCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg) and increased bulk shear around 35kts for Monday per
12Z GFS and Euro so it will be something to keep an eye on as we
inch closer to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Low pressure and associated cold front will be approaching the area
at the beginning of this period sometime Tuesday, bringing
additional chances for some showers/storms. Forcing will be
increased with this feature and as such an increase in the potential
for showers and storms Tuesday compared to Monday. Instability
appears to also be around the same, perhaps a little higher in our
western lowlands compared to Monday, but it is still a little ways
out and any antecedent cloud cover or ongoing precipitation would
potentially hinder greater instability. Still something that should
be watched as the system approaches early this week but overall
dynamics aren`t that supportive outside of some instability.

QPF for Tuesday through early Thursday seems to be trending upwards,
especially across the lowlands where the Euro now places most of the
coal fields in a swath of around 2" of rain but the GFS keeps
rainfall totals at around .5-1.25" across most of the area which
either way would provide much needed precipitation for our drought
stricken county warning area. I will note, however, that the WPC has
most of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
Tuesday and also has us at around the .5-1.25" range, so we will
need to keep an eye on the trends as the weekend progresses but with
the ongoing extreme drought, it seems that the risk for flooding
would be minimal at best. Precipitation chances should end rapidly
from west to east by Thursday morning, but some lingering showers
are possible across the mountains. Some models indicate moisture
will continue to linger over the area through the weekend but the
probability of that seems low.

Temperatures will be a little milder after the front moves through
but still in the low 80`s across the lowlands to mid 70`s in the
mountains for most locations with mainly pleasant weather for
the remainder of the period through Saturday as ridging once
again builds back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

Fog development was limited overnight to the higher mountain
valleys, even staying out of EKN due to the fact that mid to
level clouds were building into the area.

A weak cold front will progress eastward today, bringing a
broken deck of clouds and the chance for showers/storms in the
afternoon, primarily along the mountains. Airfields should
remain VFR during this timeframe, but VCSH/VCTS was included for
sites close to anticipated convection for this afternoon and
evening.

In the wake of the front, better potential for fog to encompass
further down into the lowlands will transpire. This will be
especially true for areas that receive rain during the day
today. Hinted at this possibility for the concluding hours of
this latest TAF issuance.

Winds will shift out of the west/northwest for the second half
of the day Saturday in response to FROPA, but remaining light
and oftentimes variable during the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN may sneak down briefly into IFR this
morning within partial clearing skies.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Sunday morning with river valley fog in
the mountains and down into the central lowlands. Brief IFR
possible in any showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon
through early Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/MEK/RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/JMC
SHORT TERM...28/RPY
LONG TERM...28/RPY
AVIATION...MEK