109
FXUS61 KRLX 171014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
614 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain
showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek.
Mainly dry/settled weather comes back end of week/weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

As the low pressure system to our south inches closer under
weak steering flow, conditions across the area will slowly
deteriorate throughout the day. Clouds will lower and grow
thicker throughout the day suppressing daytime heating somewhat
and preventing temperatures from increasing past the 80 degree
mark. Comfortable low to mid 70s expected across much of the
area with some locations to the extreme south likely dipping
down below even the 70 degree mark today.

Light rain showers will be on the table for much of the day but
most activity will likely remain along the mountains until this
afternoon when chances increase for the southern half of the
area. The northern half of the area will struggle to get some
activity going but will have better chances through the
afternoon.

During the afternoon chances for thunderstorm activity will be
possible for basically just the southern half of the area which
may increase rain totals for the day. Otherwise, not much
rainfall is expected outside the extreme southern and
northeastern borders of our CWA. Rain chances will significantly
become lower by the evening and into the overnight with
temperatures only dropping into the lower 60s due to cloud
coverage with slightly cooler temperatures expected in the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

A stacked, occluded low pressure system south of the area
Wednesday morning fills as it drifts slowly east away from the
area Wednesday through Thursday night. Showers are most likely
in and near the mountains Wednesday, with the least chance out
over the middle Ohio Valley. While there will still be enough
moisture in the column for a heavier shower here and there, most
of the rain will be light, barely enough to help ease fire
concerns, let alone put any dent in our drought. If anything,
the higher humidity alone will help with the former.

There may be enough heating and destabilization for a
thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon, and shower coverage will
become more diurnally driven as the system weakens and drifts
away through Thursday night. Most of the area will dry out
Wednesday night, followed by a diurnal uptick in the chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, mainly east of
the Ohio River, before promptly drying out again Thursday night.

Temperatures will average close to normal, but the diurnal
range will widen a bit with some decease in cloud.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Ridging surface and aloft conspires to bring dry, warmer
weather Friday through the weekend, as it builds from the west
aloft and from the northeast at the surface. Central guidance
averages out any chance for precipitation associated with a
disturbance or two in the mid level northwest flow, before the
ridge builds in this weekend.

The dry weather may continue into Monday, but a pattern change
early next week may actually bring the northern stream back into
the picture, as a southern stream short wave trough is picked
up by a northern stream counterpart over the Midwest.

High temperatures climb a bit further above normal, and then
level off, while lows remain near normal this period. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s combined with dew points in the 50s will
result in minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages in the
30s, even some 20s, Friday through at least the weekend. Given
the forecast stretch of dry weather ensues, fire weather concerns
would likely return.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

The main theme for this TAF period is a slow progression of
deteriorating conditons with possible shower activity. Mid
clouds will quickly turn to low clouds through the morning.
Light rain showers will be on the table throughout the period
for BKW/CWR with some rain potential for the rest of the sites
during the afternoon, except for HTS/CKB who should remain
mostly dry. Restrictions to VIS and CIGs may drop down to MVFR
or possibly worse at times under shower activity, however the
predominant flight category should remain VFR for most sites
except for BKW/EKN who will drop into MVFR during the morning
and continue to worsen throughout the period. There is potential
for LLWS across the mountains during the early morning hours at
BKW/EKN and will likely become negated by the late morning when
surface flow increases.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There could be some thunderstorm activity
during the afternoon, but should only be confined to CRW/BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 09/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
through Wednesday morning, and again overnight Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JZ