Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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064 FXUS61 KRLX 211634 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1234 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The weekend opens up with a cold front that may produce a few afternoon showers along the mountains. Drying out for the remainder of the weekend, growing unsettled next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 813 AM Saturday... The forecast remains on track this morning, but added some slight chance PoPs through the next few hours for portions of northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio due to ongoing showers in those areas. As of 645 AM Saturday... Increased clouds across the area this morning as the cold front charges in from the west. Radar trends at the time of writing depicted some isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms moving from west to east through Ohio and Kentucky as mid to upper level vorticity triggers early morning development. Increased POPs a bit along the western flank of the forecast area for this morning, but still think this activity will weaken as it approaches Central Appalachia. As of 215 AM Saturday... The weekend opens up with temperatures more applicable with Summer, as many spots in the Tri-State area will once again reach the low 90s. The culprit warm front responsible for these unseasonably warm forecast highs will sail northward this morning to make room for an encroaching disturbance. A weak cold front will zip through the forecast area today, with contributions from a shortwave trough that will encourage showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain this afternoon. A narrow ribbon from New York down to Virginia was placed in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, scraping a few of our northeast WV counties. Main concerns with stronger storms later today will be gusty winds and hail. A dose of measurable rainfall will also be feasible with activity today, but will be limited to only a few tenths of an inch for the mountains and foothills of West Virginia. Certainly not enough to put a dent in the historic drought underway in the forecast area. The front will vacate the region by late this evening, with lingering showers wrapping up around sunset. A decent signal for river valley fog in the wake of the frontal passage will be present overnight into Sunday morning. This will be especially true for areas that receive precipitation today. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Friday... Ridging will begin to flatten and pivot east of our area at the beginning of the period as a cold front pushes east into the Ohio Valley. Low pressure associated with the warm frontal boundary will bring the potential for showers/storms starting late Sunday night into Monday and Monday night. High temperatures Monday will be in the low to mid 80`s across the lowlands and as low as the low 60`s across the mountains with high humidity as moisture plume advects into the region from the south. The system should provide some much needed rain for the area as we continue to experience extreme drought. Rainfall amounts should generally be under an inch per WPC QPF but isolated higher totals are possible across the higher elevations to the east and any areas that see repeated or heavier rainfall associated with thunderstorms. There is also a very small risk for excessive rainfall, mainly along and northwest of the Ohio River in our Ohio counties, which with our drought conditions would seem to be merely beneficial. SPC highlights no risk area for severe weather at this time but there is a marginal to the west of our area that has been matriculating eastward and could include western portions of the CWA in the future, especially with instability trending upward (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and increased bulk shear around 35kts for Monday per 12Z GFS and Euro so it will be something to keep an eye on as we inch closer to Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 PM Friday... Low pressure and associated cold front will be approaching the area at the beginning of this period sometime Tuesday, bringing additional chances for some showers/storms. Forcing will be increased with this feature and as such an increase in the potential for showers and storms Tuesday compared to Monday. Instability appears to also be around the same, perhaps a little higher in our western lowlands compared to Monday, but it is still a little ways out and any antecedent cloud cover or ongoing precipitation would potentially hinder greater instability. Still something that should be watched as the system approaches early this week but overall dynamics aren`t that supportive outside of some instability. QPF for Tuesday through early Thursday seems to be trending upwards, especially across the lowlands where the Euro now places most of the coal fields in a swath of around 2" of rain but the GFS keeps rainfall totals at around .5-1.25" across most of the area which either way would provide much needed precipitation for our drought stricken county warning area. I will note, however, that the WPC has most of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and also has us at around the .5-1.25" range, so we will need to keep an eye on the trends as the weekend progresses but with the ongoing extreme drought, it seems that the risk for flooding would be minimal at best. Precipitation chances should end rapidly from west to east by Thursday morning, but some lingering showers are possible across the mountains. Some models indicate moisture will continue to linger over the area through the weekend but the probability of that seems low. Temperatures will be a little milder after the front moves through but still in the low 80`s across the lowlands to mid 70`s in the mountains for most locations with mainly pleasant weather for the remainder of the period through Saturday as ridging once again builds back into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 AM Saturday... Fog development was limited overnight to the higher mountain valleys, even staying out of EKN due to the fact that mid to level clouds were building into the area. A weak cold front will progress eastward today, bringing a broken deck of clouds and the chance for showers/storms in the afternoon, primarily along the mountains. Airfields should remain VFR during this timeframe, but VCSH/VCTS was included for sites close to anticipated convection for this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the front, better potential for fog to encompass further down into the lowlands will transpire. This will be especially true for areas that receive rain during the day today. Hinted at this possibility for the concluding hours of this latest TAF issuance. Winds will shift out of the west/northwest for the second half of the day Saturday in response to FROPA, but remaining light and oftentimes variable during the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN may sneak down briefly into IFR this morning within partial clearing skies. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible Sunday morning with river valley fog in the mountains and down into the central lowlands. Brief IFR possible in any showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...28/MEK/RPY/JMC NEAR TERM...MEK/JMC SHORT TERM...28/RPY LONG TERM...28/RPY AVIATION...MEK