646
FXUS61 KRNK 141545
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1145 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure wedging southward from New England across the
Mid-Atlantic will maintain control of the weather pattern
through the weekend, resulting in breezy east-northeasterly
winds. Low pressure will develop off the North Carolina coast
during the middle of next week, and is likely to bring rain to
areas of the Mid-Atlantic, the exact timing and location of
which remains uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure will maintain east-northeasterly winds today,
with drier air bringing a decrease in clouds by afternoon.

2) Increased sunshine will make for afternoon highs mainly in
the 70s. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to the low
60s.

A few isolated light rain showers in the NC High Country, and
other parts of western NC, otherwise, much of the area remains
dry but cloudy. Some breaks in the clouds are observed near the
Greenbrier Valley and the Alleghany Highlands of VA. Cloud cover
will continue to decrease across the area through today, as
drier air works its way into the region. No significant changes
made for this forecast update, aside from blending in
temperature and dewpoint observations.


As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Made adjustments to increase rain chances with the cluster of
showers moving across northwest North Carolina into southwest
Virginia near Galax this morning. These showers are weakening
and are expected to diminish as the morning progresses.

As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest weather observations indicate the Mid-Atlantic remains
under the influence of a large dome of high pressure, centered
over New England, that is wedging its way southward against the
eastern face of the Appalachians. This pattern is supporting
winds from the east-northeast, which are carrying Atlantic air
into the mountains. The Atlantic moisture continues to support
spotty shower activity across northern North Carolina into
southwest Virginia, as observed on the latest radar imagery.
Temperatures remain mild thanks to dewpoints in the 60s and
widespread cloud cover, with not much additional cooling
expected tonight. The tightened pressure gradient between the
high pressure over New England and low pressure associated with
the remnants of Francine are supporting gusts as high as 20 mph
at times, which will keep the atmosphere mixed, preventing fog
formation.

Looking to today, showers that are passing across North
Carolina and southwest Virginia will diminish through the
morning, with clouds decreasing in the afternoon as a surge of
drier air works its way across the Mid-Atlantic from the north.
As such, expect a mixture of clouds and sunshine that will allow
afternoon temperatures to warm into the 70s for most of the
region, perhaps touching 80 across the Virginia Southside.
Coolest temperatures will be found across the North Carolina
High Country, which will hold onto cloud cover for longer in the
day, where highs in the 60s can be expected. Breezy east-
northeast winds, with gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range, can be
expected thanks to a pressure gradient that will remain
tightened through the day.

The surge of drier air will bring slightly cooler temperatures
tonight, with early morning lows dipping into the mid 50s across
the mountains, and the low 60s across the Piedmont. May see a
few sprinkles return tonight mainly across the foothills and
along the Blue Ridge, as Atlantic moisture builds back into the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for rain chances increasing by late
Monday into Tuesday, but rainfall amounts are highly uncertain.

2) Temperatures will remain below normal due to a cool
northeast flow from high pressure wedged against the Blue Ridge.

High pressure will remain wedged against the eastern slopes of
the Blue Ridge during Sunday and Monday. The resulting cool
northeast breeze should keep temperatures below normal for the
middle of September. Light rain or sprinkles may linger through
Sunday and Sunday night along the southern Blue Ridge. By
Monday, an area of low pressure will develop off the South
Carolina coast, and it could move inland towards eastern North
Carolina during Monday night. There are still notable model
discrepancies with the track of the area of low pressure moving
into Virginia by Tuesday, but confidence is rising that some
rain may arrive during late Monday into Tuesday. The highest
amounts appear to be east of Route 29, though the exact values
remain highly uncertain due to the aforementioned model
discrepancies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1139 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is low for ongoing chances of rain to finish the
work week, with blocky pattern

2) Temperatures will stay near normal for this time of year.

Deterministic models and their ensembles are in a general consensus
that a blocky pattern remains this period with an upper low/trough
over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Wed-Thursday gradually shifts
offshore by the weekend. Meanwhile, surface troughiness with low
pressure and front offshore will keep a flow out of the north
to northeast at times. With this pattern, it looks like one
where a few showers/perhaps a rumble of thunder pop up in the
afternoon, with a minimal of showers at night. Confidence is low
on how high to have pops, but leaning toward a blend keeps most
in the 30 percent range or less, with best chances along/east
of the Blue Ridge under the upper low.

Temperatures during this time will run close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Saturday...

The Mid-Atlantic remains under the influence of high pressure,
centered over New England, that is wedging its way southward
against the eastern face of the Appalachians. This pattern is
supporting winds from the east-northeast, which are carrying
areas of MVFR/IFR stratus, as well as widely scattered showers
into the mountains. Winds remain breezy, reaching 15kt to
occasionally 20kt.

Scattered MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through around 16Z
with only modest improvements, but will then scatter thereafter
as drier air arrives from the north. This will make for
predominantly VFR conditions through the remainder of the day,
though pockets of lower clouds will remain mainly across the
higher ridges. Scattered MVFR/IFR ceilings, and perhaps a few
pockets of drizzle will return during the early morning hours of
Sunday. With little change in the weather pattern, east-
northeast winds will persist through the period.

Confidence in forecast is average.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Occasional rounds of light rain, as well as overnight periods
of sub-VFR ceilings, will continue through Monday as high
pressure remains wedged against the eastern face of the
Appalachians. Confidence on rain chances at any one TAF site is
low with dry air/high pressure/subsidence still in the
vicinity. Sites that may see fewer impacts would be LYH, ROA,
and DAN.

Sub-VFR at times Tue-Wed as coastal system impacts our area
with rain at times.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

The Lynchburg ASOS (LYH) is still experiencing data transmission
issues. Please use caution when using data from this site, as
some may be missing. Technicians are investigating the problem.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...AS/NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...AS/SH