146
FXUS61 KRNK 192220
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the
week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. Any rainfall is expected to be isolated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 610 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high in continued dry weather.

2) Cloud cover will keep high temperatures and thus heat index
values lower than they would be otherwise.

Pattern remains stagnant through Thursday. Expect some mid and
high clouds through Thursday and this should keep temps from
getting too high. Could see some patchy fog in the river bottoms
overnight.

Previous discussion...

A broad ridge covers the eastern seaboard and extends into the
OH and TN Valleys. It is making some slight progression west as
the main jet stream lifts into Canada. This has allowed an
extensive cirrus shield to build in from the northwest and has
helped limit high temperatures today to within 5 degrees of
normal. Additionally, diurnally-driven clouds had formed mainly
in the mountains, closer to an area of convergence along the
periphery of the ridging to the west, and also in response to
afternoon heating. These diurnal clouds below 20kft will
dissipate this evening.

Tonight and tomorrow, the ridge is flattened to a more east-west
orientation as short wave energy rides over its northern side.
Our hot and rain-free weather will become just slightly muggier
tomorrow with an slight increase in dew points as flow turns
more easterly. Overnight lows will mostly be in the 60s with
highs tomorrow similar to today. Additional periods of
cloudiness will again keep temperatures in check, with heat
indices in the 80s to lows 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for above normal temperatures.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in the
mountains as this week ends.

A 597 dam upper level ridge at 500 mb will head southwest across
the Appalachian Mountains on Thursday night and reach the
lower Mississippi River Valley by Friday. A light southerly
breeze from the western periphery of high pressure centered off
the East Coast will help to boost temperatures into the 90s
across the lower elevations during Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures overall will reach up to ten degrees above normal
for this time of year, and the heat index may climb up to 100
degrees along and east of a line from Danville to Lynchburg by
Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough will cross over the Rocky
Mountains and approach the central Plains. As baroclinic
energy and synoptic lift increases from the north, the
increasing heat will trigger a growing threat of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms as this week concludes. While a slight
chance of storms exists in Greenbrier County for Friday
afternoon, that chance will expand to all locations along and
west of the Blue Ridge by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for showers and thunderstorms during
Sunday and Monday from a cold front.

2) Drier conditions may arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday, but
temperatures will still remain quite warm.

Sunday should see a further jump in the chance of showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes.
A cold front will eventually reach the Appalachian Mountains
by Monday to keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms
elevated. Temperatures will dip a little after the frontal
passage, but it should still stay quite warm. Drier air could
arrive by Tuesday from weak high pressure that might linger into
Wednesday. Although rain chances would be reduced overall by
the middle of the week, a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms may exist along the southern Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 613 PM EDT Wednesday...

Expecting widespread VFR through the 24 hour TAF. Exception
being some potential MVFR and IFR fog at DAN/LWB late tonight.

Any ceilings will be from high clouds.

Confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Pattern favors dry conditions into Saturday with increasing
chance for storms Sunday into Monday as the ridge breaks down.
Overall VFR through the period aside from any fog at LWB and
storms Sun-Mon.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...SH/WP