970
FXUS61 KRNK 191054
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
654 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the western Atlantic with high pressure over the
eastern Unites States will keep a low probability of
precipitation over the area through Sunday. Next week a cold
front approaching from the central United States will result in
a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above normal through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

    - Fog this morning

    - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
      and evening

Deepening storm system in the western Atlantic will help steer the
persistent upper low over the Mid Atlantic to the east today and
tonight. Still have areas of instability and small short waves that
were triggering scattered showers this morning. Convective allowing
models have these showers dissipating by mid morning, a few hours
break before showers and thunderstorms develop in eastern West
Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands and over the Mountain Empire
area this afternoon.

Should see some rapid clearing and erosion of any remaining fog
late this morning into the early afternoon which will help heat
up and destabilize the atmosphere. Will stay close to NBM
guidance for maximum temperatures today, expecting many
locations will warm into the 80s.

Fog returns again tonight. Lows remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for isolated showers and thunderstorms
each day.

2) Temperatures trend back towards normal values.

An upper level low should slowly head offshore on Friday, but
lingering moisture convergence and instability along the Blue Ridge
may spark isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Drier air
could arrive by Friday night, but the latest models do not push the
upper level ridge from the southern Plains further east compared to
previous runs. Instead, a weak shortwave trough will spiral around
the periphery of the ridge and reach the Mid Atlantic on Saturday.
While rain chances will remain isolated in nature, the daily threat
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge may
continue throughout the weekend. Since there will be some periods of
sunshine, temperatures should moderate back near normal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day as a cold front approaches.

2) More clouds could nudge temperatures a little below normal.

High pressure over the New England states should wedge against the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge by Monday, and the easterly flow
should be enhanced by a stalled upper level low spinning offshore.
Meanwhile, a cold front will develop across the central Plains and
head eastward. The models are not in agreement with the timing of
the frontal passage for the Appalachian Mountains later in the week.
Nevertheless, the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
rise as the cold front draws closer, especially west of the Blue
Ridge. Coverage of this convection will also increase once the flow
can be swung from the east to the south, but the wedge may prove
rather difficult to budge at first. The higher cloud cover should
nudge temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

IFR/MVFR clouds across the region this morning. NWS radars
scattered showers over the Virginia and North Carolina
piedmont. There was still some instability over the area,
especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some of the showers will
have MVFR visibility due to moderate to heavy rain. Patchy
IFR/LIFR fog will dissipate this morning.

Deepening storm system in the western Atlantic will help steer the
persistent upper low over the Mid Atlantic to the east today and
tonight. Still have areas of instability and small short waves that
were triggering scattered showers this morning and thunderstorms
this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms develop in eastern West Virginia and
the Alleghany Highlands and over the Mountain Empire area this
afternoon.

IFR to LIFR fog is expected to develop in the west of the Blue
Ridge overnight.

Average confidence for ceiling and wind.
Below average confidence for visibility and extent of dense fog
this morning and again tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each afternoon and evening Friday through Sunday. Otherwise VFR
during the day then areas of MVFR/IFR fog and stratus at night.

The chance of precipitation increases on Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/BMG