Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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576 FXUS61 KRNK 131725 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend. Temperatures remain several degrees above normal each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 116 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1) Warm and more humid today and Friday. Isolated storms possible. Humidity starting to creep up as are temperatures, but still close to normal for mid June. 12z RNK sounding continues to show moisture in the 850-700 layer evidenced by scattered to broken clouds at that level. PWATS have closed in on an inch. Forecast soundings showing temperatures warming enough to break the cap. A shortwave tracking across the Ohio Valley should reach the mountains by late afternoon. Appears enough low level moisture convergence and differential heating to produce isolated showers and storms. High-res models vary with little to none on some and more coverage on others. Looks like a case where a few storms pop up this afternoon along/near the Blue Ridge, then shift east into the foothills/piedmont by later in the day. Again overall coverage is isolated so most stay dry and warm with mostly to partly sunny skies. Any showers/storms fade this evening leaving behind mostly clear skies. Could have some fog in the valleys across our mountain counties overnight into dawn. Friday, a front tracks southeast toward the area, with the 5h pattern suggest weak forcing. At the moment, the models in general agreement in meager storm chances so kept pops on the low side, with widely scattered coverage by late afternoon over the mountains/foothills. A little more west/northwest flow should allow temperatures to creep up to around 90 in Piedmont and Roanoke/Southern Shenandoah Valleys, with 80s in the mountains, which for most will be about 5 degrees above normal. Confidence in the near term is high, except on storm coverage/pops. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: Warm and mostly dry weather expected. Front jumps to the surface trough in the piedmont during the evening. Shower activity will follow the same pattern, falling part moving over the mountains, shadowing the foothills and then redevelop in the piedmont. Showers in the piedmont will track into central North Carolina around midnight. High pressure will wedge south into the Carolinas on Saturday and linger into Sunday. No rain is expected this weekend. Cool northeasterly flow will be offset by dry air and abundant sunshine this weekend. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge to mid to upper 80s east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Thursday... Key Points: Key Messages: 1) Hot and humid next week 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening A ridge of high pressure is expected to drift over the area Monday and Tuesday then move north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. This system will bring above normal temperatures and increase humidity through much of next week. High temperatures each afternoon will range in the mid to upper 80s across the mountains and low to mid 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Heat indices values may be 3F to 6F warmer than the actual surface temperatures. Diurnal thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon. Storms will likely start over the mountains in the afternoon then drift into the foothills and piedmont during the evening. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 122 PM EDT Thursday... Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. This afternoon we may see isolated showers/storms mainly at KBCB/KROA, so have VCSH and VCTS briefly based on radar/high res model trends. Winds will be mainly out of the south to southwest under 10kts. Fog at LWB and perhaps BCB late tonight down to IFR especially if it rains nearby or at the site. Forecast confidence is high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR anticipated through Monday. Exceptions...chance of storms Friday afternoon and evening that may bring sub-VFR, especially for BLF/LWB. In addition, morning fog will be possible in mountain and river valleys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...SH/WP