656
FXUS61 KRNK 131809
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
209 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front
tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure
works in again for the weekend. Temperatures remain several
degrees above normal each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 116 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and more humid today and Friday. Isolated storms
possible.

Humidity starting to creep up as are temperatures, but still
close to normal for mid June. 12z RNK sounding continues to
show moisture in the 850-700 layer evidenced by scattered to
broken clouds at that level. PWATS have closed in on an inch.
Forecast soundings showing temperatures warming enough to break
the cap. A shortwave tracking across the Ohio Valley should
reach the mountains by late afternoon. Appears enough low level
moisture convergence and differential heating to produce
isolated showers and storms. High-res models vary with little to
none on some and more coverage on others. Looks like a case
where a few storms pop up this afternoon along/near the Blue
Ridge, then shift east into the foothills/piedmont by later in
the day. Again overall coverage is isolated so most stay dry and
warm with mostly to partly sunny skies.

Any showers/storms fade this evening leaving behind mostly clear
skies. Could have some fog in the valleys across our mountain
counties overnight into dawn.

Friday, a front tracks southeast toward the area, with the 5h
pattern suggest weak forcing. At the moment, the models in
general agreement in meager storm chances so kept pops on the
low side, with widely scattered coverage by late afternoon over
the mountains/foothills. A little more west/northwest flow
should allow temperatures to creep up to around 90 in Piedmont
and Roanoke/Southern Shenandoah Valleys, with 80s in the
mountains, which for most will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Confidence in the near term is high, except on storm
coverage/pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Mostly dry and warm weekend.

Upper and sfc ridging is progged to build into the area in the wake
of the near term fropa. The subsident airmass should allow for
mostly dry and warmer conditions for the weekend. Afternoon max
temps look to make it to the low to mid 80s for many locations
Saturday and Sunday. The sfc high slides more east of the area for
Sunday and the low level fetch shifts south to SE allowing some
higher dewpts to advect northward under the upper ridge. We may get
some isolated convective development in the southwest for Sunday
afternoon but most of the area should stay largely suppressed.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Warmer temps into the work week with continued mostly dry
conditions.

Most of the work week should be under a lingering pattern as the
aforementioned sfc high continues to stay centered off the east
coast and the upper ridge persisted across the eastern CONUS with
some northward drifting. Some of the warmest temps of the year look
to be reached in the afternoons as a result with many locations
getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. Daytime heating combined with
some enhanced moisture trapped under the cutoff ridge could allow
for slight chances of diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
potential across some of the mountains. The mornings could have
patchy fog potential especially for locations that receive precip
from any previous PM development.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 122 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. This
afternoon we may see isolated showers/storms mainly at
KBCB/KROA, so have VCSH and VCTS briefly based on radar/high res
model trends. Winds will be mainly out of the south to southwest
under 10kts. Fog at LWB and perhaps BCB late tonight down to IFR
especially if it rains nearby or at the site.

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through Monday. Exceptions...chance of storms
Friday afternoon and evening that may bring sub-VFR, especially
for BLF/LWB. In addition, morning fog will be possible in
mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...SH/WP