866
FXUS63 KSGF 141045
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (30-60%) Today and Sunday east of Highway 65.
  Total rainfall amounts generally less than 0.50 inch. Many
  locations will remain dry.

- Continued below average temperatures through the weekend with
  a warming trend next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis showed upper level energy spinning over the
Mississippi/Tennessee border region. 00z KSGF sounding showed a
fairly moist profile with a PW value around 1.5in. East
northeast winds continue along with a low stratus deck. An area
of showers continues across southeast Missouri, closer to the
upper level energy.

Today through Tonight: Given the light northeast winds and RH
around 90-100%, areas of fog may develop through sunrise.
Visibilities in the 1-4 mile range look reasonable with widespread
dense fog not expected at this time. Most likely scenario is for stratus
to build down over the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau.
Much like yesterday, these clouds will be slow to erode with
HREF data suggesting areas along and east of Highway 65 may
remain broken to overcast for much of the day. This will have a
big impact on highs and have gone closer to the cooler NBM25th
percentile with highs in the 70s east of Springfield with temps
increasing into the 80s west towards Joplin.

A piece of the shortwave energy will rotate west into the area
during the day and there are indications of a few showers
developing east of Highway 65 this afternoon. Mean MU CAPE
values look to reach 500j/kg therefore there is a low chance of
a thunderstorm as well across this region.

Shortwave energy looks to move closer to the area overnight
with additional rain showers east of Highway 65, especially
across the far eastern Ozarks where rain chances are in the
40-50% range. Mean rainfall amounts from the HREF are generally
in the 0.1-0.25in range east of Highway 65, mainly centered
across south central Missouri.

Sunday: Shortwave energy looks to continue moving west over the
area during the day which may cause a repeat of Saturday. Areas
east of Highway 65 have a 30-60% chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours with the highest
chances across the West Plains region. Clouds and precip again
look to cause a wide range in highs with low to middle 70s east
of Springfield and middle 80s west. HREF mean QPF does increase
into the 0.25in-0.5in range across the West Plains region with
the Sunday afternoon and evening rainfall. There is some model
guidance that takes the rainfall Sunday a little farther west
(west of highway 65) and we will have to monitor that with
additional PoP updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Monday: Shortwave energy looks to become more diffuse/sheared
apart as it moves north and east therefore rain chances look
less (20%). Highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely if
clouds clear out enough.

Tuesday through Friday: Ensembles continue to suggest that the
area will be in between systems with a general warming trend as
850mb temps rise back into the 18-20C range and a weak mid level
ridge develops. Highs in the lower to middle 80s look likely
along and east of Highway 65. Areas west of Highway 65, in
moderate drought conditions, will heat up further with areas in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thursday and Friday currently appear
to be the warmest days of the upcoming week. These western areas
may finally begin to see rainfall chances increase by the end
of the week as a highly amplified trough takes shape across the
Rockies which may allow for a corridor of rainfall to occur
along a frontal boundary. Significant uncertainty exists however
with respect to the eastern extent of this rainfall. The
Climate Prediction Center does have a slight risk (20%) of heavy
rainfall across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Confidence is high that flight conditions will be down in the
IFR-MVFR categories this morning with BBG seeing IFR ceilings.
Ceilings will slowly improve by afternoon with VFR conditions
returning. Winds will remain out of the east northeast with
afternoon gusts around 18kts. Ceilings will likely lower again
late tonight into Sunday morning, back down into MVFR. Rain
chances remain too low to include in the TAFs at this time and
will likely stay east of the sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield