Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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052 FXUS63 KSGF 191905 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 205 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms in extreme SE Kansas and portions of Vernon County. Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for much of west Missouri. Wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of half dollars are the main hazards. - Continued hot on Friday. Some record highs may be challenged. - More widespread rain chances over the weekend (30-75%) with the highest chances over central Missouri...and additional chances through late next week (10-30%). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a very complex upper level pattern over the CONUS. There is a large upper trough over the east coast, an upper low just off the California coast and another upper low just north of ND. Meanwhile, a strong jet is diving southeast into the Pacific northwest. Closer to home, an upper level ridge axis extended northeast out of Mexico into Missouri and northeast into Michigan. Closer to the ground, 850mb temperatures of 18-20 deg C have advected into the area ahead of a frontal zone which was situated over the central plains. Some scattered elevated convection was currently developing over southeast KS into west central MO. Temperatures have risen into the mid 80s to low 90s over the area with the hottest readings in southeast KS into far western MO. For tonight, the evolution of the convection will be tricky with warm conditions in the mid levels due to the upper ridging. Enough lifting ahead of the front and instability for scattered convection ahead of the front. Inverted V forecast soundings would favor damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. Not a lot of shear to support tornadic activity over the area, so we are going with a minor hail risk and wind risk late this afternoon and evening. Most of the activity should remain northwest of the I-44 corridor. Very mild conditions are expected tonight with lows from the mid 60s in the southeast CWA to the low 70s in the west. Friday, some lingering convection chances will be possible in central into south central MO during the morning and clearing out in the afternoon. 850mb temperatures continue to rise into the 22-25 degree C range with the ridge axis still in place over the area. We are expecting hot temperatures in the low 90s in the east to some upper 90s in the west. Heat index values will be from the upper 90s to around 104 during the afternoon. Friday night: The upper low in the southwest U.S. will gradually shift eastward with a southwest flow developing over the area. Some upper energy may spread into the area with some low convection chances (15-25%) Friday night over central Missouri and southeast Kansas. Lows will continue to be mild ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Convection over the weekend: The upper low is expected to shift into the Rockies on Saturday and the plains on Sunday. As this occurs, the upper ridge over the area will gradually begin to flatten out, Pacific moisture will be drawn into the area from the southwest and Gulf moisture from the south. A frontal boundary will be slow to move into the area, but eventually does on Sunday. The bulk of the precipitation is expected from central Missouri northward and thus we have our highest pops (75%) on Sunday in our northern CWA. As we head into the first half of next week, the upper flow remains rather chaotic with a lot of variance in the heigh fields which translates to many of the other variables like temperature and precipitation chances. Because of the differences in timing and placement of these features, we tend to get probabilistic rain chances extended longer in time, but lowered in confidence or probability. This is also causing large ranges in the 25-75th percentile of probabilistic temperature profiles in the Monday through Wednesday time frame. For now, we are remaining close to the NBM deterministic values which bring temperatures closer to seasonal norms in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For the 18z TAFS, earlier morning showers/thunderstorms have faded, with renewed convection developing just west of the CWA in southeast and east central KS. CAMS are all over the place with how convection may evolve this afternoon and evening. Have gone with some thunderstorm chances after 23z at JLN and into the evening, but have kept out of SGF/BBG for now as the main activity should remain in the west. Outside of any convection, we are expected VFR conditions, but could drop into MVFR or brief IFR with any thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Record High Temperatures (Joplin): September 20: 99 (1954) Forecast: 97 Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield): September 20: 74 (2018) Forecast: 71 September 21: 73 (1931) Forecast: 72 September 22: 70 (2017) Forecast: 70 Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September: Springfield: 0.05" (1928) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04" Joplin: 0.2" (2013) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00" && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Camden