279
FXUS63 KSGF 251652
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather expected today and tomorrow with below normal
  temperatures in the mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.

- Rain chances increase (40-70%) late in the week due to
  remnants of Tropical Storm Helene. There is the potential for
  widespread and prolonged rainfall with this system by Friday
  and Saturday as well as gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Enjoy today and tomorrow as the dreary cloudy and rainy weather
clears out for the next 48 hours as surface high pressure settles
in. Very pleasant weather expected with highs in the mid to upper
70s with light northerly winds. Lows will be in the lower 50s
tonight but will be a bit warmer in the upper 50s on Thursday night
as clouds start to build in ahead of our next low pressure
system.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Thursday night is when we`ll start to see the effects of Tropical
Storm Helene. Latest model guidance is still showing the upper level-
low ingesting the Tropical Storm by later this week. Though, models
have shifted the path a bit further to the east. Therefore, POPs
have decreased across most of the area on Thursday, but have
remained elevated (40-70%) for Friday and Saturday. Areas along and
east of Highway 63 will see the most rain out of this system.
Looking at 72 hr probabilistic precipitation amounts valid for
Saturday morning, the Joplin area has about a 20% chance of
receiving 1 inch of rain while the Springfield area has a 40% chance
and the West Plains area has a 60% chance. Jumping up to the 3 inch
threshold, we can see that the trend continues. Joplin has a 5%
chance, Springfield has a 12% chance, and West Plains has a 40%
chance. With a tropical airmass in place, this will create a
favorable environment for localized flooding to occur as these
showers will be efficient rainfall producers. Though, it`s still too
early to latch onto exact rainfall amounts. Stay up to date with the
latest forecast as the path of Tropical Storm Helene continues to be
evaluated.

Winds will also be breezy on Friday and Saturday with the strong
pressure gradients introduced by this system. Wind gusts could be
around 25-30 mph at times especially over far southeastern Missouri.

There is high confidence in temperatures remaining near to below
average through the long term period. Highs will be in the 70s
for the next several days with lows in the 50s. Expect mostly
cloudy skies through the weekend as the low pressure system
lingers over the Ohio River Valley through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light winds
will prevail out of the NNW until after 00Z where they will
shift to the NE. High pressure and dry air will keep skies
mostly clear over the TAF sites into Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Didio