478
FXUS63 KSGF 011041
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most areas remain dry today, though residual flooding will
  remain a concern for locations that received significant
  rainfall yesterday.

- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- A pattern change for the latter portion of the week looks to
  bring drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The well-advertised MCV will continue to meander north and east
through central Missouri early this morning. A band of moderate
to heavy rain that developed along a locally-modified baroclinic
boundary dumped a considerable amount of rain over portions of
Douglas, Webster, and Wright counties overnight, with some
locations receiving well over 6 inches of rain near Mansfield.
Therefore, while the precip will shift east of them today,
residual flooding will remain a concern.

Lingering showers will remain possible across portions of the
eastern Ozarks today through mid-afternoon. Additional flooding
is not expected with this activity with forecast totals less
than a half inch. Elsewhere will remain dry and may even see a
few peaks of sunshine in the afternoon.

A few areas of dense fog have developed across far southwest
Missouri and southeast Kansas early this morning where cloud
cover has cleared more quickly, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory.
This fog should lift during the morning hours. Fog development
again appears possible, if not likely, tonight into early Sunday
morning given the subsidence behind the low, light winds, and
abundant low- level moisture. The 00Z HREF probabilities of
visibilities less than 1 mile are in the 40-60% range and
highest across central Missouri where they will likely have a
longer period of clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Overview:
The long term forecast is rather messy and complex with numerous
transient shortwaves providing chances for showers and
thunderstorms that will be conditional upon prior convection.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm through mid-week, and
conditions will feel very muggy before a pattern change comes by
week`s end.

Sunday-Monday:
For Sunday, a decaying MCS across the Plains will approach
southeast Kansas by the early morning hours. Most guidance shows
this activity falling apart by the time it reaches our area
with decreasing instability. However, any MCV formation would
impact rain chances. It is also possible we see some weakly
forced pulse convection in the afternoon as diurnal heating
erodes inhibition. Given all the uncertainty, PoPs have been
kept fairly low (20-40%) and largely kept along and west of the
Highway 65 corridor.

A quick-moving shortwave trough is progged to move through the
Upper Midwest Sunday with its attendant surface low dragging a
cold front through the Plains. This feature will be the impetus
for possibly more widespread convection late Sunday night into
Monday morning, though it will likely be weakening as it pushes
into our area. By Monday afternoon, a remnant outflow boundary
may provide forcing for additional thunderstorm development.
With diurnal heating and given a very moist atmosphere, a few
strong to severe pulsers will be possible. The Storm Prediction
Center has outlined most of our area in a Marginal risk.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Ensemble guidance depicts fairly good agreement in developing a
more prominent upper-level wave through the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Solutions diverge when it
comes to timing, with the ENS featuring a slower evolution
compared to GEFS and GEPS. These details will influence storm
mode, available instability, and ultimately, any severe
potential. CSU machine learning products and CIPS severe analogs
continue to indicate some potential for severe weather in our
area with this system, mainly for Tuesday.

Wednesday appears to be a transition day to a northwest flow
pattern and drier conditions.

Thursday-Friday:
LREF clusters largely agree in broad upper-level ridging to
amplify over the western/central CONUS, though there remain
fairly large discrepancies over the exact longitudinal
positioning. Ultimately, where this ridge sets up and how the
pattern evolves will have implications on the sensible weather
for our area, but overall the pattern looks quieter for a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

LIFR ceilings are largely confined to far southwest Missouri
and southeast Kansas; MVFR elsewhere. Ceilings will gradually
lift to VFR levels by early to mid-afternoon.

Fog will again be possible late tonight into early Sunday
morning toward the end of the TAF period, though currently the
best chances appear to be just north and east of the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ097-101.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ077-088-
     093-094-101-102.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio