Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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955 FXUS63 KSGF 280733 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 233 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions through midweek, with temperatures near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. - Return of rain chances through late week into the weekend. Highest confidence in rain chances (50-80%) late Thursday night through Friday. Low potential for excessive rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Satellite imagery depicted mostly clear skies across the area during the early morning hours (some isolated mid to high level clouds), with observed temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the Ozarks region as of 230 AM. Some patchy fog may appear in low lying areas and near waterways early this morning, however coverage will be limited with the dry airmass in place. Much of the area can expect to remain dry today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s (warmest towards southeast Missouri). A shortwave is progged to push south of the area throughout the day today, leading to some models and CAMs showing rain chances returning to far southwest Missouri later this morning into the early afternoon. Some discrepancies exist between ensemble members, as most want to keep the entire area dry, while some bring in a band of rain. Kept pops between 15-30% for areas along and southwest of a Branson- Joplin- Fort Scott line to account for this potential. With northwesterly flow and surface high pressure in place, most of the area will remain dry today. For tonight, expect lows in the mid to upper 50s with partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Models depict an additional upper level wave pushing through the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with an associated surface low developing over west Texas and a stationary front bisecting southern TX. This will allow for low-end rain chances (10-30%) to return across far southwest Missouri Wednesday afternoon/evening, however confidence remains low in this scenario as ensembles continue to show a lack of sufficient moisture return reaching this far north. Towards the end of the week, an upper level system will begin to progress through Canada/the northern CONUS while several embedded shortwaves push through the region. As a result, the ridging pattern will deteriorate, and widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (40-80%) will return to the area late Thursday into Friday, with 30-45% chances lingering into the weekend. For Friday, Ensemble members show a mean PWAT around 1.50 inches, with NBM probabilities of 72-hr QPF (Thursday morning through Sunday morning) showing the following: >1.0 inch: 50-70% along/west of Hwy 65; 30-50% east of Hwy 65 >2.0 inches: 30-50% along/west of I-49 Because of this, WPC has highlighted the entire area in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall, however the better chances look to be towards the western portion of our CWA. More details will be made clear as we progress closer to this timeframe, so make sure to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. Low-end rain chances (15-30%) exist between 14-19Z for mainly KJLN, which could lower visibilities to MVFR. However confidence is too low to include in anything other than a PROB30 group for now. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected through this morning, then northwesterly winds between 5-10 kts this afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Melto