Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms likely Today and Wednesday. Localized heavy
rain and minor flooding are possible.

2. Additional low end shower chances into Thursday night.

3. Below average temps continue through Thursday.

4. Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected for the
holiday weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

An upper level trough/low was digging across the plains this
morning with showers and isolated storms moving across Kansas and
Oklahoma with some showers across west central Missouri, mainly
north of I-44. This activity will continue to spread to the north
and east through the day today, but will take its time to impact
areas east of highway 65.

Some locations may see a few showers during the morning today but
most areas will be dry. Thick cloud cover will once again keep
afternoon highs in check with upper 60 mainly west of Highway 65
and around 70 degrees for areas west of Highway 65.

This afternoon will see showers and isolated storms continue to
spread east. A low level jet from 30-40 knts will impinge on the
western half of the Ozarks by this afternoon which may allow for
a few strong to severe thunderstorms. While there will be
sufficient shear for storm development, the cloud cover and
temperatures will limit instability. If strong to severe storms
can develop this afternoon, damaging winds would be the primary

As the upper level trough/low continues to dig across the plains
into tonight, finally closing, additional rounds of showers and
storms will move across the area. Thanks to southerly flow, which
will keep moisture streaming into the region, overnight lows will
fall little with lows in the lower 60s.

Rainfall overnight will combine with the showers today and wet
soils already in place across the area to set the stage for some
potential isolated flooding for Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

The upper low will begins to move east during the day Wednesday
with a slight negative tile noted on synoptic models. This will
bring the potential for some continued strong to severe storms
with damaging winds again the main concern.

During the day Wednesday, the enhanced convection will allow for
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. This would be the time
frame the will need to be watched for any potential flooding
concerns. The good part is, though models keep slowing the
system, they also have been tapering off rainfall amounts.

Rain will then continue Wednesday night and through Thursday as
the surface and upper low become nearly vertically stacked. This
will again slow the eastward progression of the system, which may
allow for lingering rainfall into Thursday night. The slower
motion will also bring continued cloud cover and keep
temperatures in check with highs Thursday only in the middle 60s.

The low will finally clear east of the area early Friday morning
allowing for a return of sunshine and a period of dry weather,
just in time for the holiday weekend. The weekend is expected to
be rather nice with mostly sunny skies and highs climbing into the
lower to middle 80s by Memorial Day.

It may become a bit windy on Sunday as an upper level ridge will
depart the area and the next storm system develops in the plains.
This next system will then bring chances for more rain, though it
may be light, for the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

The coverage of showers and storms will increase through the day
with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities, especially where
storms occur. Impacts to terminals will continue into Wednesday
and Thursday. Some breaks may occur, but overall conditions will
remain see impacts.




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