Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 182316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024


-  Breezy conditions today with southerly wind gusts up to 25-35
   mph, especially west of Highway 65, weakening tonight.

-  15-30% chances for isolated to scattered showers and
   thunderstorms east of Highway 65 today and over west Missouri

-  Heat and humidity to continue this week.

-  Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the
   rest of June.


Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level trough over the
western U.S. by the Rocky Mountains, with a ridge over the
eastern U.S. At the surface, a strong pressure gradient is
causing S to SSE winds of 15-20 mph across western and north-
central MO, gusting up to 30 mph. Hot and humid conditions
prevail, with temperatures reaching into the mid-80s with the
exception of the SE portions of our CWA, where temps are around
80 due to heavier cloud cover, and dewpoints in the high 60s and
low 70s.

For the rest of the day, there is a 15-30% chance of isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Showers, if they occur at all, are most
likely to form east of Highway 65 in the eastern Ozarks.
Precipitable water vapor ranges from 1.5-2" across the region, so
hazards associated with any storms that form are locally heavy
rainfall and lightning.

Because of the storm potential and greater cloud cover in the SE,
high temperatures in the SE will reach the mid-80s, while the
rest of the CWA climbs to around 90. Low temperatures will drop
to 65-70 F tonight. As the surface pressure gradient over MO
weakens, so too will the gusty winds, decreasing to 5-10 mph.

Wednesday paints a similar picture to today, namely hot and
humid conditions, with high temperatures reaching into the
upper 80s and low 90s, and dewpoint temps in the high 60s. Low
(10-20%) probabilities of precipitation exist across the CWA. A
cold front is forecast to pass through central NE, north-central
KS, and northern MO. The southern edge of this front may kiss
our northern counties late in the day. Thunderstorms and showers
associated with this front are expected to stay to the north
and west of our area, but some residual showers are possible in
the western part of the CWA.


Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Model guidance consistently builds a strong ridge over the central
and eastern U.S. This unfortunately gives us no reprieve from hot
and humid conditions, with high temperatures in the low to mid-90s
through Tuesday. The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 Day Outlooks
continue to signal above average temperatures (50-60% chances), so
the heat is unlikely to leave us anytime soon.

Our best chances of slight relief in the long term could potentially
come on Sunday. Models seem to be latching onto the idea of a
shortwave trough developing Friday night/Saturday morning in the
northwest U.S., reaching into the southern Canadian provinces. This
shortwave trough would flatten out the aforementioned ridge,
allowing a cold front to move into our CWA, which will bring chances
of more widespread showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chances at the
moment). Thus, any relief from warmth would be short-lived, if
the front can make it this far south, with temperatures in the
upper 80s. Remember to practice heat safety from the end of this
week into the weekend, as heat indices will be consistently
between 95-100 F.


Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the 00z TAFS, isolated convection will wane over the next
few hours with the loss of daytime heating. Will not mention at
the 3 TAF sites for now. Gusty winds will diminish during the
evening and should become more steady around 10-12kts at SGF/JLN
with BBG becoming light and variable. VFR conditions are
expected through the period.


Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Record High Temperatures:

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016
KVIH: 98/1901

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18:
KSGF: 74/2018

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934