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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301958
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures will continue to occur across the
area this week into early next week.

2. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
development will occur each day into early next week but no days
are expected to be all day complete washouts.

3. A few strong storms and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible this afternoon and evening.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

A few isolated showers storms have developed across far southern
Missouri this afternoon on the remnants of convection that formed
last night to the west. Scattered storms will continue to develop
across southern Missouri the rest of this afternoon into early this
evening. Lightning will be the main risk with this activity
across far southern Missouri this afternoon.

Additional storms are forming across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. Instability is increasing across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri. 0-3km bulk shear
vectors are to the south around 10kt. Theta-E differences  are
between -20 and -25. The storms to the northwest should produce
outflow and with the low level flow, new storms should develop on
any southward moving outflow. A few strong storms will be
possible across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late this
afternoon and this evening, with gusty winds the main risk. Some
small hail will be possible but with the weak upper level flow
the hail risk is low. Precipitable water values is also increase
across these areas, and with slow storm motion some locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible but the overall flooding risk is
low.

Additional storms will develop across the central Plains this
evening. Outflow from this convection may develop and push south
into the area tonight into Wednesday morning. There will be some
up capped MUCAPE in place overnight across the western portions of
the area. Any activity that develops to the west of the area
should be weakening as it moves towards the area but with the
elevated instability some showers and storms should be able to
make it into portions of the area before they completely
dissipates Wednesday morning.

Additional isolated to scattered storm development will once
again be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Not all locations will be affected by the any of the convection
from this afternoon through Wednesday evening. And the areas that
are effected will not see an all day complete washout.

Highs will be in the low to middle 80s both today and wednesday
with lows in the 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Temperature will warm slightly late this week with highs in the
upper 80s to even the lower 90s possible Thursday into the
weekend.

Scattered shower and storm development will continue to be
possible during mainly the afternoon and evening hours daily from
Thursday through the weekend into early next week. The upper
level flow will remain low across the area and no widespread lift
will occur so this activity will not be widespread and no all day
washouts are expected. Also, no widespread severe weather or
flooding will occur, but cannot rule out a strong storm or two and
some locally heavy rainfall.

The ensemble model members are showing the potential for a
pattern change to occur next week as an upper level trough moves
through the area potentially bringing slightly cooler conditions
to the area. There are still differences on the timing of this.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Isolated storms are starting to develop across the area on the old
outflow of overnight convection early this afternoon. Scattered
storms will continue to develop across the area this afternoon and
evening. This activity will dissipate this evening. Additional
storms will develop across the central Plains this evening push
into the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise