005
FXUS63 KSGF 172315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into
  Sunday morning. A Marginal (1 of 5) to Slight (2 of 5) Risk
  exists for a few thunderstorms that may become capable of
  producing wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of
  quarters.

- The unsettled weather pattern will continue across the area
  early next week. This includes the potential for strong to
  severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall
  and flooding. Uncertainty remains in the exact storm mode and
  evolution, which will impact main hazards.

- Active pattern is forecast to end after Tuesday, with mostly
  dry and cooler temperatures Wednesday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Skies have been mostly sunny today, though clouds are moving in
from the southwest as the warm front starts to slowly lift north
towards southern MO. Winds will gradually shift to
east/southeast by this evening. Moisture return will begin
tonight partly thanks to a low-level jet over NE OK. Models are
showing showers and thunderstorms moving across southern MO
tonight after sunset. The severe weather outlook from SPC has SW
MO in a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather tonight with the
main threats being 60 mph winds and hail up to the size of
quarters with the mid-level lapse rates at 7-8 C/km and
elevated instability in place. Associated southerly flow will
advect warm and moist air over the surface boundary, bringing
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE along and south of a Nevada to Eminence
line. Though, the area that has the highest probabilities for
severe weather will be along and south of a line from Pittsburg,
KS to eastern Taney county (Taneyville, MO). Chances for rain
tonight are 50-80% and are the highest for the areas just
previously mentioned. Rain will taper off before sunrise on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday:

Elevated showers and thunderstorms may return Sunday afternoon
along the warm front. Behind the warm front, instability will
gradually increase and overspread the area as temperatures warm
into the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints in the middle
60s. A few models suggest upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MUCAPE in
extreme SW MO and SE KS. Deep layer shear is also expected to
increase to 40-50 kts as stronger southeasterly surface flow
moves into the area. Though, forcing isn`t quite there to get
things going tomorrow afternoon. Will continue to keep an eye on
Sunday afternoon to see if things can develop and break through
the cap. Though storm development during the day is uncertain,
there will more likely be storms Sunday night.

Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night:

Storms will develop along the dryline across central KS/OK
during the day. These will then progress eastward into our area
during the evening and overnight hours. Storm mode and evolution
for this time period is still uncertain. Initial mode in KS/OK
will likely be discrete supercells. Discrete supercells could be
maintained as shear vectors persist westerly across our area.
Though, efficient cold pools coupled with a strong low-level jet
could produce an MCS. Then there could always be a mixed mode
of both. Storm mode/evolution is important to consider tomorrow
as it will dictate our most likely hazards. If supercells can be
maintained, all hazards including hail up to tennis balls, a
couple tornadoes, and 60 mph wind gusts will be possible. If an
MCS is the dominant mode, wind gusts up to 60 mph, a couple
tornadoes (as low-level shear vectors will be westerly promoting
a QLCS spin-up threat), and quarter-sized hail will be the main
hazards.

Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday:

The same sort of setup as Sunday will exist Monday, except
slightly more amplified and the dryline shifting a bit eastward
into east-central KS/OK. Medium-range guidance suggests MUCAPE
greater than 3000 J/kg as dewpoints increase to the upper 60s, and
deep-layer shear greater than 50 kts as the flow aloft
increases ahead of a deepening trough. Though it is still
uncertain exactly when storms will initiate, the best chances
appear to be Monday evening/night as they move in from the
west. Hazards will once again be determined by storm
mode/evolution, however, with the initiating dryline shifting
eastward, there is a larger/longer window for discrete all-
hazards supercells (potentially significant hail) late Monday
afternoon/early evening before any potential change in
evolution. This combined with the amplified instability/shear
parameters is leading to an Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for the
western 2/3rds of our forecast area.


Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday:

As the potent system translates eastward, severe thunderstorms
will once again be possible Tuesday. Global models seem to be a
bit more progressive with the warm sector forecast to be along
and east of Highway 65 after 12 PM Tuesday. With a crashing cold
front progged to accompany a deepening upper-level low severe
weather is possible as it moves through our CWA Tuesday
afternoon. Hazards are currently uncertain, but given the strong
frontal forcing, damaging wind gusts look to be a main hazard.


Compounding showers and storms could lead to localized flooding:

Along with the chances for severe weather each day, the
compounding effect of multiple rounds of showers and storms
(especially from heavy rain within severe convection) could lead
to localized flooding. The location of any flooding is highly
uncertain right now, as it will depend on where storms go and
where the warm front sets up. Most areas in our CWA are
forecast to see between 2 and 4 inches through Wednesday.
However, if MCSs become the dominant storm mode each night, and
end up riding the warm front at the nose of the nocturnal low-
level jet, there could be banded areas that see well over 4
inches of rain. For example, the experimental MPAS ensemble puts
a band of 7-12 inches total precipitation Saturday through
Wednesday across central Missouri. This is not to be taken
literally, but it does highlight the scenario of multiple MCSs
riding a relatively stationary warm front each day/night that
could lead to localized flooding.


Cooler and drier weather Wednesday onwards:

Cooler and drier weather are forecast Wednesday onwards. Highs
Wednesday are forecast to be in the lower 60s with lows in the
middle 40s Wednesday night. These cooler temperatures will then
gradually warm to highs in the middle 70s and lows in the upper
50s by Memorial weekend. Intermittent rain chances (20-40%)
return Friday and Saturday within a northwesterly flow regime,
but details are currently uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions at the start of the TAF period are expected to
deteriorate this evening and overnight as scattered
thunderstorms move into southwest Missouri from Kansas and
Oklahoma. Some of these storms will be capable of producing wind
gusts up to 60 mph, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain
that reduces visibilities to 1 SM or less. These storms are
expected to diminish in coverage and intensity toward 12Z, but
additional precipitation will be possible at the terminal sites
from late morning through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Didio