


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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005 FXUS63 KSGF 172315 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 615 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning. A Marginal (1 of 5) to Slight (2 of 5) Risk exists for a few thunderstorms that may become capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. - The unsettled weather pattern will continue across the area early next week. This includes the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Uncertainty remains in the exact storm mode and evolution, which will impact main hazards. - Active pattern is forecast to end after Tuesday, with mostly dry and cooler temperatures Wednesday onwards. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Skies have been mostly sunny today, though clouds are moving in from the southwest as the warm front starts to slowly lift north towards southern MO. Winds will gradually shift to east/southeast by this evening. Moisture return will begin tonight partly thanks to a low-level jet over NE OK. Models are showing showers and thunderstorms moving across southern MO tonight after sunset. The severe weather outlook from SPC has SW MO in a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather tonight with the main threats being 60 mph winds and hail up to the size of quarters with the mid-level lapse rates at 7-8 C/km and elevated instability in place. Associated southerly flow will advect warm and moist air over the surface boundary, bringing 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE along and south of a Nevada to Eminence line. Though, the area that has the highest probabilities for severe weather will be along and south of a line from Pittsburg, KS to eastern Taney county (Taneyville, MO). Chances for rain tonight are 50-80% and are the highest for the areas just previously mentioned. Rain will taper off before sunrise on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday: Elevated showers and thunderstorms may return Sunday afternoon along the warm front. Behind the warm front, instability will gradually increase and overspread the area as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints in the middle 60s. A few models suggest upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MUCAPE in extreme SW MO and SE KS. Deep layer shear is also expected to increase to 40-50 kts as stronger southeasterly surface flow moves into the area. Though, forcing isn`t quite there to get things going tomorrow afternoon. Will continue to keep an eye on Sunday afternoon to see if things can develop and break through the cap. Though storm development during the day is uncertain, there will more likely be storms Sunday night. Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night: Storms will develop along the dryline across central KS/OK during the day. These will then progress eastward into our area during the evening and overnight hours. Storm mode and evolution for this time period is still uncertain. Initial mode in KS/OK will likely be discrete supercells. Discrete supercells could be maintained as shear vectors persist westerly across our area. Though, efficient cold pools coupled with a strong low-level jet could produce an MCS. Then there could always be a mixed mode of both. Storm mode/evolution is important to consider tomorrow as it will dictate our most likely hazards. If supercells can be maintained, all hazards including hail up to tennis balls, a couple tornadoes, and 60 mph wind gusts will be possible. If an MCS is the dominant mode, wind gusts up to 60 mph, a couple tornadoes (as low-level shear vectors will be westerly promoting a QLCS spin-up threat), and quarter-sized hail will be the main hazards. Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday: The same sort of setup as Sunday will exist Monday, except slightly more amplified and the dryline shifting a bit eastward into east-central KS/OK. Medium-range guidance suggests MUCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg as dewpoints increase to the upper 60s, and deep-layer shear greater than 50 kts as the flow aloft increases ahead of a deepening trough. Though it is still uncertain exactly when storms will initiate, the best chances appear to be Monday evening/night as they move in from the west. Hazards will once again be determined by storm mode/evolution, however, with the initiating dryline shifting eastward, there is a larger/longer window for discrete all- hazards supercells (potentially significant hail) late Monday afternoon/early evening before any potential change in evolution. This combined with the amplified instability/shear parameters is leading to an Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk for the western 2/3rds of our forecast area. Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday: As the potent system translates eastward, severe thunderstorms will once again be possible Tuesday. Global models seem to be a bit more progressive with the warm sector forecast to be along and east of Highway 65 after 12 PM Tuesday. With a crashing cold front progged to accompany a deepening upper-level low severe weather is possible as it moves through our CWA Tuesday afternoon. Hazards are currently uncertain, but given the strong frontal forcing, damaging wind gusts look to be a main hazard. Compounding showers and storms could lead to localized flooding: Along with the chances for severe weather each day, the compounding effect of multiple rounds of showers and storms (especially from heavy rain within severe convection) could lead to localized flooding. The location of any flooding is highly uncertain right now, as it will depend on where storms go and where the warm front sets up. Most areas in our CWA are forecast to see between 2 and 4 inches through Wednesday. However, if MCSs become the dominant storm mode each night, and end up riding the warm front at the nose of the nocturnal low- level jet, there could be banded areas that see well over 4 inches of rain. For example, the experimental MPAS ensemble puts a band of 7-12 inches total precipitation Saturday through Wednesday across central Missouri. This is not to be taken literally, but it does highlight the scenario of multiple MCSs riding a relatively stationary warm front each day/night that could lead to localized flooding. Cooler and drier weather Wednesday onwards: Cooler and drier weather are forecast Wednesday onwards. Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the lower 60s with lows in the middle 40s Wednesday night. These cooler temperatures will then gradually warm to highs in the middle 70s and lows in the upper 50s by Memorial weekend. Intermittent rain chances (20-40%) return Friday and Saturday within a northwesterly flow regime, but details are currently uncertain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR conditions at the start of the TAF period are expected to deteriorate this evening and overnight as scattered thunderstorms move into southwest Missouri from Kansas and Oklahoma. Some of these storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain that reduces visibilities to 1 SM or less. These storms are expected to diminish in coverage and intensity toward 12Z, but additional precipitation will be possible at the terminal sites from late morning through the afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Didio